Swings in the 1981 General Election: A Research Note

Abstract

WellingtonTwice before, from 1966 and 1975, the writer has analysed underlying voting swings in a New Zealand general election, using a linear regression model'. The absence of electoral boundary changes in the 198 1 election enables the model to be used again for that year with only minor variations, and this note replicates the earlier analyses referred to.The model described in the 1977 article gives rise to three equations to be estimated, such as L* = 01 + (I1 -01) L + (nl -01) N + (sl -