Old-age survival has increased substantially since 1950. Death rates decelerate with age for insects, worms, and yeast, as well as humans. This evidence of extended postreproductive survival is puzzling. Three biodemographic insights--concerning the correlation of death rates across age, individual differences in survival chances, and induced alterations in age patterns of fertility and mortality--offer clues and suggest research on the failure of complicated systems, on new demographic equations for evolutionary theory, and on fertility-longevity interactions. Nongenetic changes account for increases in human life-spans to date. Explication of these causes and the genetic license for extended survival, as well as discovery of genes and other survival attributes affecting longevity, will lead to even longer lives.

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Experimental systems that are amenable to genetic manipulation can be used to address fundamental questions about genetic and nongenetic determinants of longevity. Analysis of large cohorts of ten genotypes of Drosophila melanogaster raised under conditions that favored extended survival has revealed variation between genotypes in both the slope and location of age-specific mortality curves. More detailed examination of a single genotype showed that the mortality trajectory was best fit by a two-stage Gompertz model, with no age-specific increase in mortality rates beyond 30 days after emergence. These results are contrary to the limited life-span paradigm, which postulates well-defined, genotype-specific limits on life-span and brief periods of intense and rapidly accelerating mortality rates at the oldest age.

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Populations typically differ in mean life spans because of genetic, environmental, or experimental factors. In this paper methods are presented that clarify the relationship between differences in the longevity of two populations and differences in their underlying age-specific patterns of mortality. Data are examined from rodent and fruit fly (Drosophila melanogaster) experiments that investigated the longevity effects of a variety of environmental and genetic manipulations, including temperature, dietary restriction, laboratory selection for increased longevity, and severe inbreeding. Analyses suggest that longevity differences mediated by temperature and dietary restriction result predominantly from differences in the rate of increase in mortality with age. Increases in longevity through laboratory selection result primarily from a reduction in baseline mortality and not a slowing of the rate of aging. Although the methods are applied primarily in the context of simple mathematical models of mortality (e.g., the Gompertz model), they are quite general and can be applied to mortality models of arbitrary complexity. Mathematica protocols ("notebooks") and computer software have been developed to perform all the analyses discussed and are available from the first author.

Survival data were collected on a total of 28,000 Drosophila melanogaster adults in order to investigate mortality patterns and induced physiological responses after a mild thermal stress. A brief, nonlethal heat treatment extends adult life span at normal temperatures by an average of 2 days (64), compared to nontreated controls of the same genotypes. Life expectancy is extended as a demographic consequence of reduced age-specific mortality over a period of up to several weeks after the heat treatment. Heat treatment also increases tolerance to subsequent, more severe thermal stress. Observations on single-sex populations suggest that heat-induced longevity extension is independent of the suppression of reproductive activity.

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Age-specific mortality rates level off far below 100% at advanced ages in experimental populations of Drosophila melanogaster and other organisms. This observation is inconsistent with the equilibrium predictions of both the antagonistic pleiotropy and mutation accumulation models of senescence, which, under a wide variety of assumptions, predict a "wall" of mortality rates near 100% at postreproductive ages. Previous models of age-specific mortality patterns are discussed in light of recent demographic data concerning late-age mortality deceleration and age-specific properties of new mutations. The most recent theory (Mueller and Rose 1996) argues that existing evolutionary models can easily and robustly explain the demographic data. Here we discuss the sensitivity of that analysis to different types of mutational effects, and demonstrate that its conclusion is very sensitive to assumptions about mutations. A legitimate resolution of evolutionary theory and demographic data will require experimental observations on the age-specificity of mutational effects for new mutations and the degree to which mortality rates in adjacent ages are constrained to be similar (positive pleiotropy), as well as consideration of redundancy and heterogeneity models from demographic theory.