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JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. This content downloaded from 128.235.Baumgartner and Jones (1993) described a process of punctuated equilibrium in their study of policymaking in the United States since World War II. Evidence was drawn from a series of particular issue-areas, but the model has implications for all areas of policymaking. In this paper, we explore the validity of this approach with a new dataset that tabulates congressional budget authority at the Office of Management and Budget subfunction level across all areas of the federal budget for the entire postwar period.We find that government spending is characterized by much greater change than is typically portrayed in the literature, even if there is great stability for most categories most of the time. In addition, overall patterns of spending have been affected by two large-scale punctuations. These punctuations divide national spending into three epochs. one of postwar adjustment, lasting until FY 1956; one of robust growth, lasting from 1956 through 1974, and one of restrained growth, beginning in FY 1976. We test the epoch hypothesis against three plausible rival hypotheses: changes in the robustness of the postwar economy; partisan divisions; and public opinion. The epoch hypothesis survives all of these rivals whether modeled individually or together. This paper provides empirical evidence that punctuations occur, not just in some programs or subsystems, but also throughout government. The General ApproachPolicymaking within subsystems in the United States is dominated by a process alternating between periods of relative gridlock and periods of dramatic change (Baumgartner and Jones 1993). Such punctuated equilibria seem characteristic of many complex systems. They are evident in the evolution of species (Eldredge 1985), in economics, when new technologies disrupt prevailing patterns of doing business (Thurow 1996), and in computer simulations of iterated games (Lindgren 1992). These punctuations interspersed with periods of stasis may have both exogenous and endogenous causes. Complex interactions among Policy Punctuations 3 tively divide the postwar period into three epochs, which seem to correspond to widely shared, but dramatically different, conceptions of the proper role of government during these three periods.We test our finding of two large-scale punctuations against three plausible rival hypotheses. The first is that the epochs are in fact simply reflective of changes in the robustness of the postwar economy. In good times, more is spent; in lean times, less. Second, we study the hypothesis that spending eras reflect partisan divisions. When Democrats control both the executive and legislative branches, they increase the size of gove...

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Previous scholarly analyses of national spending have shown a penchant for incre‐mentalism in interpreting changes. They have also focused almost exclusively on annual national outlays or annual expenditures. This article argues that, in many cases, budget authority figures provide a better basis for analyzing the national budget. The author gathered annual budget authority (BA) figures from fiscal years 1969 to 1993 and used this BA data for an empirical test of budget controllability. If the national budget has or has not been controlled in the recent past, then it should help us to judge whether or not it is controllable now. Five potential major budget interventions from fiscal year 1980 to 1993 were tested using an interrupted time‐series and two regression models. Different intervention results are anticipated depending upon whether one has a policy perspective that is incrementalist, international systemic, or domestic political. The analysis provides more support for the domestic political perspective than for incrementalist or international systemic views. Budget authority was found to be superior to outlays for linking budget results to policy decisions. The national budget responded appropriately to policy decisions in the recent past. In this sense, the budget was controlled and we should view it as controllable.

Debate over gun control and gun rights has energized but not explained the seesaw nature of national gun policy making. Punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) aids in understanding that process, the gun policies it produces, and the roles of the ideologically opposed coalitions that are their sources. Gun ownership remains closely related to public preferences about gun policy, and the size of the gun-owning population has begun to diminish. In this analysis, the authors find that rifle and shotgun ownership responded little to national policy changes, but handgun ownership responded to both secular and policy influences. The results are that more Americans than ever before are saying "no" to gun ownership. Fewer are saying "yes," but those who do own guns have been saying "load me up." PET provides a framework for analyzing these changes and for anticipating some of their implications for public administrators.The policy debate over gun rights and gun control is one of conflicting government policies and ideological extremes. Powerful ideologies and emotional images have energized but not explained the delayed and seesaw nature of national policy making about guns in America, and there are open questions about what effects those policies have had. For a better explanation, we turn first to a theory of policy making that focuses on policy images, mobilized interests, U.S. political institutions, and their complex interactions. We next empirically explore how those policies have and have not affected gun ownership over the years.We summarize the conflicting national gun policies in America and use punctuated equilibrium theory (PET) to explain them. We next examine the ideological extremes that energize the gun control and gun rights debate and relate them to gun ownership and policy preferences. In America, the population numbers and financial resources that interest groups can command influence the kinds of policy that are adopted. The size of the gun-owning population can therefore be an important factor in U.S. gun policy, and the size of that population is diminishing. These theoretical and empirical elements are combined to provide a view of changes in gun AUTHORS' NOTE: The authors are grateful for research support from the Jack Brooks Chair