We evaluated a multicenter cohort of 1219 subjects with hemophilia or related disorders prospectively, focusing on 319 subjects with documented dates of seroconversion to human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1). The incidence rate of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) after seroconversion was 2.67 per 100 person-years and was directly related to age (from 0.83 in persons 1 to 11 years old up to 5.66 in persons 35 to 70 years old; Ptrend = 0.00003). The annual incidence of AIDS ranged from zero during the first year after seroconversion to 7 percent during the eighth year, with eight-year cumulative rates (+/- SE) of 13.3 +/- 5.3 percent for ages 1 to 17, 26.8 +/- 6.4 percent for ages 18 to 34, and 43.7 +/- 16.4 percent for ages 35 to 70. Serial immunologic and virologic markers (total numbers of CD4 lymphocytes, presence of serum interferon or HIV-1 p24 antigen, and low or absent serum levels of anti-p24 or anti-gp120) predicted a high risk for the subsequent development of AIDS. Adults 35 to 70 years old had a higher incidence of low CD4 counts than younger subjects (P less than or equal to 0.005), whereas adolescents had a low rate of anti-p24 loss (P = 0.0007) and subjects 1 to 17 years old had a lower incidence of AIDS after loss of anti-p24 (P = 0.03). These findings not only demonstrate that the risk of AIDS is related directly to age but also suggest that older adults are disproportionately affected during the earlier phases of HIV disease, that adolescents may have a low replication rate of HIV, and that children and adolescents may tolerate severe immunodeficiency better because they have fewer other infections or because of some unmeasured, age-dependent cofactor or immune alteration in the later phase of HIV disease.

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A significantly increased prevalence of antibodies to human T-cell leukemia virus (HTLV) has been described in several native American populations in the United States and Latin America. Initial virologic studies indicate that HTLV-II is the predominant virus responsible for this antibody pattern. We obtained blood samples from 106 Seminole Indians living on four reservations in Southern Florida. Seropositivity to HTLV-I/II was found in 14 (13.2%) of these individuals. Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) documented HTLV-II and the absence of HTLV-I in 7 of the 9 donors available for follow-up testing of white blood cells. Evaluation of various risk factors excluded blood transfusion or intravenous drug use as an important contributing factor to the HTLV-II seroprevalence rate. These studies support the hypothesis that HTLV-II is endemic in many native American tribes in the Western hemisphere.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is widely accepted as the primary etiologic agent in the development of cervical cancer. DNA of a particular HPV type, HPV 16, is found in about half of tumors tested. Inconsistent with this causal relationship, however, population‐based studies of HPV DNA prevalence have often failed to find high rates of anogenital HPV infection in countries with high cervical cancer rates. To examine this issue, we used serology to compare HPV 16 exposure in healthy volunteer blood donors in the United States (n = 278) and similar subjects from a country with 3‐fold higher cervical cancer rates, Jamaica (n = 257). Jamaican sexually transmitted disease (STD) patients (n = 831) were also studied to examine in detail the relation of HPV 16 antibodies with sexual history. Serology was conducted using an ELISA employing HPV 16 virus‐like particles (VLPs). Age‐adjusted seroprevalence rates were greatest among male (29%) and female (42%) STD patients, intermediate in male (19%) and female (24%) Jamaican blood donors and lowest among male (3%) and female (12%) U.S. blood donors. The higher seroprevalence in women was significant, and prevalence tended to increase with age. In multivariate logistic regression, controlling for age and gender, Jamaican blood donors were 4.2‐fold (95% CI 2.4–7.2) and STD patients 8.1‐fold (95% CI 5.0–13.2) more likely to have HPV 16 VLP antibodies than U.S. blood donors. Among STD patients, HPV 16 antibodies were associated with lifetime number of sex partners and years of sexual activity, as well as other factors. Our data suggest that HPV 16 VLP antibodies are strongly associated with sexual behavior. Moreover, exposure to HPV 16 appears to be much greater in Jamaica than in the United States, consistent with the high rate of cervical cancer in Jamaica. Int. J. Cancer 80:339–344, 1999. Published 1999 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.