Adult T-cell leukemia/lymphoma (ATL), a malignancy of mature CD4-positive lymphocytes, has been etiologically linked to the human retrovirus HTLV-I. Although a long latent period is suggested from migrant studies, little prospective information on the risk of developing ATL among persons with HTLV-I infection is available. We present here a model for ATL risk based upon age- and sex-specific HTLV-I seroprevalence data from a cross-sectional survey of 13,000 Jamaicans and ATL incidence data from a 2 1/2-year case-control study. By examining the age-specific incidence of ATL relative to both adult and childhood-acquired seropositivity versus childhood-acquired seropositivity alone, we provide evidence in support of the hypothesis that childhood infection with HTLV-I is important to the development of ATL. Using this model, the cumulative lifetime risk of ATL for those infected before age 20 is estimated to be 4.0% for males and 4.2% for females. Under this hypothesis, HTLV-I-associated diseases with shorter latent periods, such as tropical spastic paraparesis, should have a higher incidence in adult females than in adult males.

To evaluate the risk of transfusion-related transmission of HTLV-I in Jamaica, a prospective study was initiated, prior to availability of a licensed HTLV-I serological screening assay. This information would prove useful in formulating strategies for blood-donor screening. We followed 118 pre-transfusion HTLV-I-negative transfusion recipients at monthly intervals post-transfusion for 1 year. Laboratory and questionnaire data were obtained at each visit to evaluate the clinical and immunological status of recipients. Cumulative incidence of HTLV-I seroconversion was estimated and risk-factor data associated with seroconversion among 66 HTLV-I-exposed transfusion recipients were analyzed. Seroconversion occurred in 24/54 (44%) of recipients of HTLV-I-positive cellular blood components, 0/12 recipients of positive non-cellular donor units and 0/52 recipients of HTLV-I-negative donor units. Significant risk factors associated with recipient seroconversion were receipt of a seropositive cellular blood component stored for less than one week [odds ratio (OR) = 6.34, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.83 to 21.92], male sex (OR = 4.79, 95% CI = 1.15 to 20.0) or use of immuno-suppressive therapy at time of transfusion (OR = 12.20, 95% CI = 0.95 to 156). Risk of blood-borne infection per person per year in Jamaica was estimated to be 0.009%. Our results confirm that blood transfusion carries a significant risk of HTLV-I transmission and that screening of donor blood effectively prevents HTLV-I seroconversion. Recipients at greatest risk for seroconversion were those who required multiple transfusions or who were receiving immunosuppressive therapy at the time of transfusion. These patients should be given priority in receiving selectively screened blood components, if universal blood-donor screening for HTLV-I is not possible.

Background This article analyses the epidemiological research developments in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It integrates the series commissioned by the International Epidemiological Association to all WHO Regions to identify global opportunities to promote the development of epidemiology. Methods Health situations of the regions were analysed based on published data on selected mortality, morbidity and risk factors. Epidemiological publication output by country was estimated by Medline bibliometrics. Internet and literature searches and data provided by key informants were used to describe perspectives on epidemiological training, research and funding. Findings Despite important advances in recent decades, LAC remains the world's most unequal region. In 2010, 10% of the LAC's people still lived in conditions of multidimensional poverty, with huge variation among countries. The region has experienced fast and complex epidemiological changes in past decades, combining increasing rates of non-communicable diseases and injuries, and keeping uncontrolled many existing endemic and emerging diseases. Overall, epidemiological publications per year increased from 160 articles between 1961 and 1970 to 2492 between 2001 and 2010. The increase in papers per million inhabitants in the past three decades varied from 57% in Panama to 1339% in Paraguay. Universities are the main epidemiological training providers. There are at least 34 universities and other institutions in the region that offer postgraduate programmes at the master’s and doctoral levels in epidemiology or public health. Most LAC countries rely largely on external funding and donors to initiate and sustain long-term research efforts. Despite the limited resources, the critical mass of LAC researchers has produced significant scientific contributions. Future needs The health research panorama of the region shows enormous regional discrepancies, but great prospects. Improving research and human resources capacity in the region will require establishing research partnerships within and outside the region, between rich and poor countries, promoting collaborations between LAC research institutions and universities to boost postgraduate programmes and aligning research investments and outputs with the current burden of disease.

During 1985 and 1986, the authors measured antibodies to human T-lymphotropic virus type I (HTLV-I) in a cohort of 13,260 Jamaicans from all parts of the island who applied for food-handling licenses. HTLV-I seroprevalence was strongly age and sex dependent, rising from 1.7% (10-19 years) to 9.1% (greater than or equal to 70 years) in men and from 1.9% (10-19 years) to 17.4% (greater than or equal to 70 years) in women. In a logistic regression analysis, women were more likely to be seropositive than were men, and farmers, laborers, and the unemployed were more likely to be HTLV-I seropositive than were those reporting student or professional occupations. In men, African ethnicity was associated with HTLV-I seropositivity in the univariate analysis but was not a risk factor after adjustment for age and sex. There was a trend toward higher age-stratified HTLV-I seroprevalence among younger women who reported more pregnancies, but older multigravidas had lower rates of HTLV-I seropositivity. Persons born outside Jamaica had significantly lower seroprevalence than did those born in Jamaica, but they were of slightly different ethnic and occupational compositions than those born in Jamaica.

Consistent condom use was associated with reduced risk of incident urethral STI. Research on condom effectiveness should focus on incident STI outcomes, where the temporal relationship between condom use and infection is clearer.

The management of cervical infections is difficult in developing countries because laboratory facilities for diagnosing these infections are seldom available; therefore, syndrome-based management has been recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO). However, such alternative approaches need to be evaluated in real field settings. We used algorithms (flowcharts) for syndromic management of abnormal vaginal discharge to treat 752 women who presented at a Jamaican sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic. Laboratory testing revealed cervical infection (gonococcal and/or chlamydial) in 34% of these women; trichomoniasis was documented for 25%; and at least one STD was documented for 54% of the women. Use of a clinical algorithm for diagnosing cervical infection was 73% sensitive (95% CI, 67-78) and 55% specific (95% CI, 49-62) when compared with laboratory testing. The risk-assessment-inclusive flowchart developed by WHO was 84% sensitive (95% CI, 80-89) and 40% specific (95% CI, 34-46) for diagnosing cervical infection. Positive predictive values for diagnosing cervical infection with use of the algorithms ranged from 42% to 43%, and negative predictive values ranged from 78% to 81%. The sensitivity of the algorithms for diagnosing trichomoniasis ranged from 85% to 88%. To treat as many infected women as possible, the most sensitive algorithm was selected for routine use in Jamaican STD clinics.

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is widely accepted as the primary etiologic agent in the development of cervical cancer. DNA of a particular HPV type, HPV 16, is found in about half of tumors tested. Inconsistent with this causal relationship, however, population‐based studies of HPV DNA prevalence have often failed to find high rates of anogenital HPV infection in countries with high cervical cancer rates. To examine this issue, we used serology to compare HPV 16 exposure in healthy volunteer blood donors in the United States (n = 278) and similar subjects from a country with 3‐fold higher cervical cancer rates, Jamaica (n = 257). Jamaican sexually transmitted disease (STD) patients (n = 831) were also studied to examine in detail the relation of HPV 16 antibodies with sexual history. Serology was conducted using an ELISA employing HPV 16 virus‐like particles (VLPs). Age‐adjusted seroprevalence rates were greatest among male (29%) and female (42%) STD patients, intermediate in male (19%) and female (24%) Jamaican blood donors and lowest among male (3%) and female (12%) U.S. blood donors. The higher seroprevalence in women was significant, and prevalence tended to increase with age. In multivariate logistic regression, controlling for age and gender, Jamaican blood donors were 4.2‐fold (95% CI 2.4–7.2) and STD patients 8.1‐fold (95% CI 5.0–13.2) more likely to have HPV 16 VLP antibodies than U.S. blood donors. Among STD patients, HPV 16 antibodies were associated with lifetime number of sex partners and years of sexual activity, as well as other factors. Our data suggest that HPV 16 VLP antibodies are strongly associated with sexual behavior. Moreover, exposure to HPV 16 appears to be much greater in Jamaica than in the United States, consistent with the high rate of cervical cancer in Jamaica. Int. J. Cancer 80:339–344, 1999. Published 1999 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.

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