Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication --mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank's toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks' macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy. A Revolution in Thinking and PracticePrior to the 1990s, central banks were shrouded in mystery-and believed they should be. Conventional wisdom in central banking circles held that monetary policymakers should say as little as possible, and say it cryptically. In 1981, Karl Brunner (1981 wrote, with evident sarcasm:Central Banking… thrives on a pervasive impression that [it]… is an esoteric art. Access to this art and its proper execution is confined to the initiated elite. The esoteric nature of the art is moreover revealed by an inherent impossibility to articulate its insights in explicit and intelligible words and sentences.Fifteen years later, in his 1996 Robbins lectures at the London School of Economics, one of the authors of this paper (Alan Blinder (1998) Greater openness might actually improve the efficiency of monetary policy… [because] expectations about future central bank behavior provide the essential link between short rates and long rates. A more open central bank… naturally conditions expectations by providing the markets with more information about its own view of the fundamental factors guiding monetary policy…, thereby creating a virtuous circle. By making itself more predictable to the markets, the central bank makes market reactions to monetary policy more predictable to itself. And that makes it possible to do a better job of managing the economy.,Five years later, Michael Woodford (2001, pp. 307 and 312) the Federal Reserve, the ECB, and the Bank of England. Section 4 reviews the first strand of empirical research mentioned above, and Section 5 discusses the second. Finally, Section 6 provides our answers to the question of how central bank communication can contribute to the effectiveness of monetary policy and identifies avenues for future research. Why does central bank communication matter? TheoryCentral bank communication can be defined as the provision of information by the central bank to the public regarding such matters as the objectives of monetary policy, the monetary policy strategy, the economic outlook, and the outlook for future policy decisions.Nowadays, it is widely accepted that the ability of a central bank to affect the economy depends critically on its ability to influence market exp...

This paper focus on the general least squares method to explore the research topic, combining the time series analysis method to carry on the comprehensive examination to the original variable data; we construct a gray correlational degree model to estimate the relationship between subjects. There is a cointegration relationship between the economic growth and industrial structure, the second industry has the greatest impact on the economic growth; the influence of the tertiary industry gradually increased. Using the quantitative analysis, we show that there is a positive correlation between the added value of three industries and the economic growth. The second industry has the highest contribution to economic growth, followed by the tertiary industry, and finally the first industry. The innovation of the paper lies in the use of time series and gray relational analysis.

Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Ward Romp is a PhD student at Groningen University, the Netherlands (w.e.romp@eco.rug.nl). Jakob de Haan is professor of Political Economy at Groningen University and fellow of CESifo (Munich, Germany). He is also director of the Graduate School SOM of Groningen University (jakob.de.haan@rug.nl). Terms of use: Documents in EIB PAPERS Volume10 N°1 2005 41Public capital and economic growth: a critical survey IntroductionPublic capital, and especially infrastructure, is central to the activities of households and firms. According to the World Bank (1994), public capital represents the 'wheels' -if not the engine -of economic activity. Input-output tables show, for example, that telecommunications, electricity, and water are used in the production process of nearly every sector, while transport is an input for every commodity. However, the World Bank (1994, p. 19) also concludes that "infrastructure investment is not sufficient on its own to generate sustained increases in economic growth".In recent years, a substantial research effort focused on estimating the contribution of public capital to the productivity of private factors of production and to economic growth. This research was motivated by two factors (Aschauer 2000). First, for many years the ratio of public capital investment to gross domestic product (GDP) declined in the OECD area. Figure 1 shows average government investment spending as a percentage of GDP for 22 OECD countries over the period 1963-2001 (lefthand side scale) and its standard deviation (right-hand side scale). The data relate to consolidated general government and are based on the Standardised National Accounts compiled and published by the OECD. Figure 1 shows that public capital spending as a share of GDP declined between 1971 and 1990 and slightly recovered afterwards. 1 Another conclusion that can be drawn from Figure 1 is that government investment spending varies considerably across countries. As Table A1 in the Annex shows, in 2000-01, government capital spending ranged between 1.6 percent of GDP in the United Kingdom and 6.9 percent in Japan.Second, various authors claim that the decline in public non-military capital spending in the United States contributed to the productivity slowdown of the 1970s and 1980s. The early empirical work in this area, conducted largely at the national level, reported a significant and large impact of public capital on productivity. For instance, using a production-function approach for the U...

Over the last two decades, communication has become an increasingly important aspect of monetary policy. These real-world developments have spawned a huge new scholarly literature on central bank communication—mostly empirical, and almost all of it written in this decade. We survey this ever-growing literature. The evidence suggests that communication can be an important and powerful part of the central bank’s toolkit since it has the ability to move financial markets, to enhance the predictability of monetary policy decisions, and potentially to help achieve central banks’ macroeconomic objectives. However, the large variation in communication strategies across central banks suggests that a consensus has yet to emerge on what constitutes an optimal communication strategy.

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