According to our results in the most conservative scenario, approximately 25% of CHIK cases would develop CHIK-CIR (34% if we just consider the most representative studies), and 14% would develop chronic arthritis.
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has rapidly spread throughout Latin America, a region swept by multiple previous and ongoing epidemics. There are significant concerns that the arrival of COVID-19 is currently overlapping with other viruses,
Our estimates raise concerns about the effects of continued CHIK spread in Colombia and other Latin-American countries. The lack of transmission control for this disease and potential for spread means that there will be significant acute and chronic disability and related costs in the short and long term for Latin American health care systems.
Post-chikungunya chronic inflammatory rheumatism (pCHIK-CIR) is one of the consequences that are impacting new endemic countries, such as those in the Americas. The relative frequency of pCHIK-CIR is highly variable, ranging from 14.4 % to 87.2 % (including variable number of patients and follow-up times). Based on those non-weighted values, it is difficult to estimate which would be the expected number of patients with CHIK who will develop CIR. For these reasons, we modeled weighted estimations based on pooled data extracted from those eight representative studies in order to provide cumulative proportion of pCHIK-CIR over time and median time of it, but also estimations of the number of patients with CHIK reported in Latin American countries (within a 95 % CI). This model estimated a prevalence of 47.57 % for pCHIK-CIR (95 % CI 45.08-50.13), with a median time to 50 % of pCHIK-CIR in 20.12 months. Given the reported number of patients with acute CHIK during 2014 in the Americas, our estimates suggest that from those patients, 385,835-429,058 patients will develop pCHIK-CIR. Despite the limitations of these estimates, the provided figures of pCHIK-CIR presented here are preliminary approximations of what the future burden of related rheumatic disease in the region as a consequence of CHIK infection for 2015-2016 could be, given the timeframe of median time of occurrence.
Objective: There are limited studies in Latin America regarding the chronic consequences of the Chikungunya virus (CHIK), such as post-CHIK chronic inflammatory rheumatism (pCHIK-CIR). We assessed the largest cohort so far of pCHIK-CIR in Latin America, at the municipality of La Virginia, Risaralda, a new endemic area of CHIK in Colombia.
Methods: We conducted a cohort retrospective study in Colombia of 283 patients diagnosed with CHIK that persisted with pCHIK-CIR after a minimum of 6 weeks and up to a maximum of 26.1 weeks. pCHIK cases were identified according to validated criteria via telephone.
Results: Of the total CHIK-infected subjects, 152 (53.7%) reported persistent rheumatological symptoms (pCHIK-CIR). All of these patients reported joint pains (chronic polyarthralgia, pCHIK-CPA), 49.5% morning stiffness, 40.6% joint edema, and 16.6% joint redness. Of all patients, 19.4% required and attended for care prior to the current study assessment (1.4% consulting rheumatologists). Significant differences in the frequency were observed according to age groups and gender. Patients aged >40 years old required more medical attention (39.5%) than those ≤40 years-old (12.1%) (RR=4.748, 95%CI 2.550-8.840).
Conclusions: According to our results, at least half of the patients with CHIK developed chronic rheumatologic sequelae, and from those with pCHIK-CPA, nearly half presented clinical symptoms consistent with inflammatory forms of the disease. These results support previous estimates obtained from pooled data of studies in La Reunion (France) and India and are consistent with the results published previously from other Colombian cohorts in Venadillo (Tolima) and Since (Sucre).
According to our results, at least half of the patients with CHIK developed chronic rheumatologic sequelae, and from those with pCHIK-CPA, nearly half presented clinical symptoms consistent with inflammatory forms of the disease. These results support previous estimates obtained from pooled data of studies in La Reunion (France) and India and are consistent with the results published previously from other Colombian cohorts in Venadillo (Tolima) and Since (Sucre).
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