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Aims/hypothesisWe analysed the temporal changes in the incidence of childhood type 1 diabetes and its demographic determinants in Poland from 1989 to 2004, validating the model with data from 1970 to 1989. We also estimated a predictive model of the trends in childhood diabetes incidence for the near future.MethodsChildren under 15 years with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes mellitus and drawn from seven regional registries in Poland were ascertained prospectively using the Epidemiology and Prevention of Diabetes study (EURODIAB) criteria. The type 1 diabetes incidence rates (IRs) were analysed in dependency of age, sex, seasonality, geographical region and population density. Time trends in IR were modelled using several approaches.ResultsThe average incidence, standardised by age and sex, for 1989 to 2004 was 10.2 per 100,000 persons per year and increased from 5.4 to 17.7. No difference was found between boys and girls, or between urban and rural regions. In children above 4 years, IR was significantly higher in the population of northern Poland than in that of the country’s southern part, as well as in the autumn–winter season, this finding being independent of child sex. Based on the trend model obtained, almost 1,600 Polish children aged 0 to 14 years are expected to develop type 1 diabetes in 2010, rising to more than 4,800 in 2025. The estimates suggest at least a fourfold increase of IR between 2005 and 2025, with the highest dynamics of this increment in younger children.Conclusions/interpretationThese estimates show that Poland will have to face a twofold higher increase in childhood type 1 diabetes than predicted for the whole European population. The dramatic increase could have real downstream effects on Poland’s healthcare system.

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Background Estimated monogenic diabetes (MD) prevalence increases as screening programs proceeds. Objective To estimate prevalence of MD among Polish children. Subjects Patients and their family members suspected of suffering from MD (defined as causative mutation in one of the Maturity Onset Diabetes of the Young or permanent neonatal diabetes mellitus genes) were recruited between January 2005 and December 2015. Methods Nationwide prevalence was estimated based on data from 6 administrative provinces (out of 16 in Poland) with high referral rates of patients (>10 per 100 000 children). Results During the analysis, probands from 322 of 788 screened families tested positive yielding a total of 409 children and 299 family members with MD. An average of 70 probands/year were referred. Screening success rate reached 40% over the study period. We estimated the prevalence of MD in 2015 to 7.52/100 000 children (1 in 13 000). The most frequent MODY in this group was GCK‐ MODY (6.88/100 000). The prevalence estimates increased nearly 2‐fold since our report in 2011 (4.4/100 000). However, the figure reached a plateau because of screening saturation in 2014 what was also proven by lowering of the median age of diagnosis lowered in time (R = −0.73, P = .0172) along with shortening of the delay between clinical and genetic diagnosis (R = −0.65, P = .0417). Conclusions The screening for childhood MD in Poland reached a plateau phase after 10 years showing a stable prevalence estimate. The true frequency of MD in the overall population may be higher given later onset of reportedly more frequent types of MD than GCK ‐MODY.

1. The DMT1 incidence rate among children aged 0-14 years, in Podlasie Province, during 2005-2012 years was 20,84/100 000. 2. Increase in incidence rate was observed in the studied period from 15,23/100 000 in 2005 to 26,71/100 000 in 2012. The highest increase in incidence rate, 2,5 times, was fund in the youngest group, aged 0-4 years. 3. The seasonal incidence of New onset was observed with the greater number in autumn-winter months.