A Bayesian method is presented for the analysis of two types of sudden change at an unknown time-point in a sequence of energy inflows modeled by independent normal random variables. First, the case of a single shift in the mean level is revisited to show how such a problem can be straightforwardly addressed through the Bayesian framework. Second, a change in variability is investigated. In hydrology, to our knowledge, this problem has not been studied from a Bayesian perspective. Even if this model is quite simple, no analytic solutions for parameter inference are available, and recourse to approximations is needed. It is shown that the Gibbs sampler is particularly suitable for change-point analysis, and this Markovian updating scheme is used. Finally, a case study involving annual energy inflows of two large hydropower systems managed by Hydro-Québec is presented in which informative prior distributions are specified from regional information. ᭧

A model is proposed that allows study of the short-term dynamics of gas exchanges (and heat production) in large open-circuit respiration chambers. The model describes changes in [02] and [C02] in the respiration chamber by a series of differential equations based on animal metabolism and physical characteristics of gas exchange. The model structure was similar for O2 and C02, although model parameters differed. A constant level of O2 consumption (and C02 production) was assumed for resting animals which was different for fed and fasted animals. The adaptation from a fed to a fasting state was described as a first-order process. Physical activity (standing or sitting) was recorded and was included in the model as a constant. Thermic effect of feed comprised the O2 consumption and C02 production related to several relatively rapidly occurring processes after ingestion of a meal (e.g. ingestion, digestion or absorption). In the model, these processes were pooled into a single phenomenon. Model parameters were obtained statistically by comparing model predictions (based on the numerically integrated differential equations) with the observed [O,] and [C02]. The model was evaluated by studying gas exchanges in growing pigs that were fasted for 31 h and re-fed a single meal thereafter. The model fitted the data well over the 47 h measurement range. Traditional methods in which heat production is calculated suffer from noisy data when the interval between observations becomes too short. The proposed method circumvents this by modelling the observed concentration of gases in the respiration chamber rather than the calculated heat production.Energy metabolism: Calorimetry: Modelling Animals produce heat from a variety of metabolic processes such as maintenance, thermoregulation, physical activity and production (e.g. deposition of body tissue, milk production). Indirect calorimetry has played an important role in measuring this heat production in both animals and human subjects. In open-circuit respiration chambers, heat production can be calculated based on measurements of O2 consumption and C02 production without hampering the normal behaviour of the animal (Brown et al. 1984). Due to the size of the respiration chamber in relation to the subject of study, the technique has been of limited use in studying the short-term dynamics of energy metabolism. An instantaneous change in O2 consumption (or C 0 2 production) by the subject results in a small and prolonged response at the gas analyser. The limited sensitivity of gas analysers in combination with the large volume of the respiration chamber and short interval between measurements leads to noisy data when heat production is calculated (McLean & Watts, 1976;Brown et al. 1984;McDonald et al. 1988).The objective of the present study was to propose an alternative method to study the dynamics of gas exchange in open-circuit respiration chambers. In traditional methods, https://doi

A total of sixty-five observations on heat production during fasting and physical activity were obtained in four groups of pigs differing in breed and/or castration (Meishan (MC) and Large White (LWC) castrates and Large White (LWM) and Pietrain (PM) males) with body weight (BW) ranging between 25 and 60 kg. Pigs were fed ad libitum before fasting. Heat production was measured using indirect calorimetry. Fasting heat production (FHP) was proportional to the body weight raised to the power 0.55, but with group-specific proportionality parameters (8 10, 1200, 1220 and 1120kJ/kg BW@55 per d for MC, LWC, LWM and PM respectively). Group effects could be removed by expressing Fflp as a function of muscle, viscera and fat: FHP affected the number of bouts of physical activities (i.e. standing or sitting) per day, the duration of activity and the total cost of activity. Energetic cost of activity was proportional to the muscle mass raised to the power 0.91 (FHPaCtivity (kJ/h activity) = 21.0(mu~cle)~'~~). Physical activity represented less than 10 % of the total heat production in fasting growing pigs housed alone in metabolic cages and kept in a quiet environment.

The effect of feed intake level (.6, 1.0, and 1.6 x maintenance energy and protein requirements, M) on splanchnic (portal-drained viscera [PDV] plus liver) metabolism was evaluated in six multicatheterized beef steers (398 +/- 27 kg), using a double 3 x 3 Latin square design. On the last day of each 21-d experimental period, six hourly blood samples were collected from arterial, portal, and hepatic vessels. Due to catheter patency, PDV fluxes were measured on five steers, and liver and splanchnic fluxes on four steers. Increasing intake elevated (P < .01) splanchnic release of total (T) amino acids (AA), through increases (P < .01) in PDV release of both essential (E) and nonessential (NE) AA, in spite of a tendency (P < .20) for increased liver removal of NEAA. The PDV release of AA N represented 27 and 51% of digested N for 1.0 and 1.6 x M, respectively. At 1.0 and 1.6 x M, the liver removed 34% of total AA released by the PDV. For individual AA, portal flux of most EAA increased (P < .05) with feed intake, and the increase (P < .10) in splanchnic flux was accompanied by increased arterial concentration for all EAA except histidine, lysine, and methionine. This suggests that these might be limiting AA for this diet. On a net basis, most individual NEAA were released by the PDV except glutamate and glutamine, which were removed by the digestive tract. There was a net removal of NEAA by the liver, except for aspartate and especially glutamate, which were released. Ammonia release by the PDV tended (P < .20) to increase with intake and represented 69, 53, and 45% of digested N at .6, 1.0, and 1.6 x M, respectively. Urea removed by the PDV, unaffected by intake, represented 32, 33, and 21% of the digested N. Arterial glucose concentration increased linearly (P < .01) with greater intake, whereas net liver and splanchnic glucose release increased in a quadratic (P < .05) manner. Net PDV glucose release represented 26% of net glucose hepatic release at 1.6 x M. Intake elevated (P < .10) both insulin and glucagon arterial concentrations, resulting from a larger increment of portal release (P < .01) than hepatic removal (P < .05). Intake-based variations in IGF-I and NEFA arterial concentrations (P < .05) were not related to changes in splanchnic metabolism. These results clearly show the crucial role of the splanchnic tissues in regulating the profile and quantity of AA and concentrations of glucose and pancreatic hormones reaching peripheral tissues.

The effect of the supply of metabolizable protein on splanchnic fluxes of nutrients and hormones was measured in six catheterized late-lactation Holstein cows in a crossover design. Two isonitrogenous diets (16.3% CP), but differing in rumen protein degradability and estimated metabolizable protein (MP) supply (1654 g/ d, Lo-MP; 1930 g/d, Hi-MP) were fed, each over a 35-d experimental period. On d 34 or 35, net fluxes of nutrients and hormones across the portal-drained viscera, the liver, and total splanchnic tissues were determined. Portal absorption of total, essential, nonessential, and branched-chain amino acids (AA) increased with the Hi-MP diet. Approximately 76% of the additional metabolizable protein supply was recovered as extra AA-N absorption in the portal vein. Liver removal of AA was not different between diets, and this resulted in a greater net release across the splanchnic tissues for the Hi-MP diet. This extra AA supply provided substrates for the observed increased milk protein yield for the Hi-MP diet. Fractional efficiencies of conversion of absorbed individual essential AA into milk protein ranged from 0.42 to 0.68. The corresponding efficiencies for utilization of postsplanchnic AA supply were 0.42 to 1.80. Provision of methionine, phenylalanine, and histidine beyond the liver were similar to outputs in milk protein but the other essential AA were supplied to peripheral tissues in excess of milk output, indicative of oxidative mechanisms in nonhepatic tissues. Net fluxes of glucose, NH3-N, and urea were not affected by the diets. Neither arterial concentrations of insulin, somatotropin, or IGF-1, nor net transfers across the portal-drained viscera or liver of insulin, were affected by the diets. Although portal release of glucagon was not different between the diets, a smaller proportion was removed by the liver on the Hi-MP diet. Metabolism of AA across the splanchnic tissue bed is a major determinant of the quantity and the profile of AA delivered to peripheral tissues.

Although hydrological time series for different sites in a given region are usually correlated and that climate changes should have a regional impact on water resources, very little has appeared in the literature about multivariate change-point analysis. This paper generalizes the univariate Bayesian approach for the detection of a single shift in the mean level to study a change in the meanvector of a sequence of multivariate normal vectors. Two different problems are considered: the ®rst one is the estimation of the unknown regional change-point under the hypothesis that a shift occurred, while the second one is the overall assessment of change versus no change. This method is illustrated by an application to stream¯ow data series for six rivers situated in the Northern Que Âbec Labrador region.

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