BackgroundIn the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy trial, all-cause mortality was higher for participants randomized to intermittent, CD4-guided antiretroviral treatment (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) than continuous ART (viral suppression [VS]).We hypothesized that increased HIV-RNA levels following ART interruption induced activation of tissue factor pathways, thrombosis, and fibrinolysis.Methods and FindingsStored samples were used to measure six biomarkers: high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), amyloid A, amyloid P, D-dimer, and prothrombin fragment 1+2. Two studies were conducted: (1) a nested case–control study for studying biomarker associations with mortality, and (2) a study to compare DC and VS participants for biomarker changes. For (1), markers were determined at study entry and before death (latest level) for 85 deaths and for two controls (n = 170) matched on country, age, sex, and date of randomization. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated with logistic regression. For each biomarker, each of the three upper quartiles was compared to the lowest quartile. For (2), the biomarkers were assessed for 249 DC and 250 VS participants at study entry and 1 mo following randomization. Higher levels of hsCRP, IL-6, and D-dimer at study entry were significantly associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality. Unadjusted ORs (highest versus lowest quartile) were 2.0 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.0–4.1; p = 0.05), 8.3 (95% CI, 3.3–20.8; p < 0.0001), and 12.4 (95% CI, 4.2–37.0; p < 0.0001), respectively. Associations were significant after adjustment, when the DC and VS groups were analyzed separately, and when latest levels were assessed. IL-6 and D-dimer increased at 1 mo by 30% and 16% in the DC group and by 0% and 5% in the VS group (p < 0.0001 for treatment difference for both biomarkers); increases in the DC group were related to HIV-RNA levels at 1 mo (p < 0.0001). In an expanded case–control analysis (four controls per case), the OR (DC/VS) for mortality was reduced from 1.8 (95% CI, 1.1–3.1; p = 0.02) to 1.5 (95% CI, 0.8–2.8) and 1.4 (95% CI, 0.8–2.5) after adjustment for latest levels of IL-6 and D-dimer, respectively.ConclusionsIL-6 and D-dimer were strongly related to all-cause mortality. Interrupting ART may further increase the risk of death by raising IL-6 and D-dimer levels. Therapies that reduce the inflammatory response to HIV and decrease IL-6 and D-dimer levels may warrant investigation. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT00027352).

Background HIV replication and immune activation may increase inflammation and coagulation biomarkers. Limited data exist comparing such biomarkers for those with and without HIV infection. Methods For those aged 45–76, high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6), D-dimer, and cystatin C were compared for 494 HIV-infected individuals in the Strategies for Management of Anti-Retroviral Therapy (SMART) study with 5,386 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). For those aged 33–44, hsCRP and IL-6 were compared for 287 participants in SMART with 3,231 participants in the Coronary Artery Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study. Results hsCRP and IL-6 were 55% (p<0.001) and 62% (p<0.001) higher among HIV-infected participants compared to CARDIA. Compared to MESA, hsCRP, IL-6, D-dimer and cystatin C were 50%, 152%, 94%, and 27% higher (p<0.001 for each). For HIV-infected participants on ART with HIV-RNA levels ≤400 copies/mL, levels were higher (p<0.001) than the general population for all biomarkers (by 21% to 60%). Conclusions hsCRP, IL-6, D-dimer and cystatin C are elevated with HIV infection and remain so even after HIV-RNA levels are suppressed with ART. Further research is needed on the pathophysiology of HIV-induced activation of inflammatory and coagulation pathways in order to guide potential interventions.

BackgroundThe SMART study was a trial of intermittent use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) (drug conservation [DC]) versus continuous use of ART (viral suppression [VS]) as a strategy to reduce toxicities, including cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. We studied the predictive value of high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), interleukin-6 (IL-6) and D-dimer with CVD morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected patients who were enrolled in SMART beyond other measured CVD risk factors.MethodsA blood sample was available in 5098 participants who were enrolled in the SMART study for the measurement of IL-6, hsCRP and D-dimer. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% CI for CVD events were estimated for each quartile (Q) for each biomarker vs the 1st quartile and for 1 SD higher levels. For both treatment groups combined, unadjusted and adjusted HRs were determined using Cox regression models.ResultsThere were 252 participants who had a CVD event over a median follow-up of 29 months. Adjusted HRs (95% CI) for CVD for Q4 vs Q1 were 4.65 (2.61, 8.29), 2.10 (1.40, 3.16), and 2.14 (1.38, 3.33) for IL-6, hsCRP and D-dimer, respectively. Associations were similar for the DC and VS treatment groups (interaction p-values were >0.30). The addition of the three biomarkers to a model that included baseline covariates significantly improved model fit (p<0.001). Area under the curve (AUC) estimates improved with inclusion of the three biomarkers in a model that included baseline covariates corresponding to other CVD risk factors and HIV factors (0.741 to 0.771; p<0.001 for difference).ConclusionsIn HIV-infected individuals, IL-6, hsCRP and D-dimer are associated with an increased risk of CVD independent of other CVD risk factors. Further research is needed to determine whether these biomarkers can be used to improve CVD risk prediction among HIV positive individuals.

Objectives We sought to determine smoking-related hazard ratios (HRs) and population-attributable risk percentage (PAR%) for serious clinical events and death among HIV-positive persons, whose smoking prevalence is higher than in the general population. Methods For 5472 HIV-infected persons enrolled from 33 countries in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy clinical trial, we evaluated the relationship between baseline smoking status and development of AIDS-related or serious non-AIDS events and overall mortality. Results Among all participants, 40.5% were current smokers and 24.8% were former smokers. Adjusted HRs were higher for current than for never smokers for overall mortality (2.4; P<.001), major cardiovascular disease (2.0; P=.002), non-AIDS cancer (1.8; P=.008), and bacterial pneumonia (2.3; P<.001). Adjusted HRs also were significantly higher for these outcomes among current than among former smokers. The PAR% for current versus former and never smokers combined was 24.3% for overall mortality, 25.3% for major cardiovascular disease, 30.6% for non-AIDS cancer, and 25.4% for bacterial pneumonia. Conclusions Smoking contributes to substantial morbidity and mortality in this HIV-infected population. Providers should routinely integrate smoking cessation programs into HIV health care.

BackgroundIn the general population, raised levels of inflammatory markers are stronger predictors of fatal than nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. People with HIV have elevated levels of interleukin‐6 (IL‐6), high‐sensitivity C‐reactive protein (hsCRP), and D‐dimer; HIV‐induced activation of inflammatory and coagulation pathways may be responsible for their greater risk of CVD. Whether the enhanced inflammation and coagulation associated with HIV is associated with more fatal CVD events has not been investigated.Methods and ResultsBiomarkers were measured at baseline for 9764 patients with HIV and no history of CVD. Of these patients, we focus on the 288 that experienced either a fatal (n=74) or nonfatal (n=214) CVD event over a median of 5 years. Odds ratios (ORs) (fatal versus nonfatal CVD) (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) associated with a doubling of IL‐6, D‐dimer, hsCRP, and a 1‐unit increase in an IL‐6 and D‐dimer score, measured a median of 2.6 years before the event, were 1.39 (1.07 to 1.79), 1.40 (1.10 to 1.78), 1.09 (0.93 to 1.28), and 1.51 (1.15 to 1.97), respectively. Of the 214 patients with nonfatal CVD, 23 died during follow‐up. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for all‐cause mortality were 1.72 (1.28 to 2.31), 1.73 (1.27 to 2.36), 1.44 (1.15 to 1.80), and 1.88 (1.39 to 2.55), respectively, for IL‐6, D‐dimer, hsCRP, and the IL‐6 and D‐dimer score.ConclusionsHigher IL‐6 and D‐dimer levels reflecting enhanced inflammation and coagulation associated with HIV are associated with a greater risk of fatal CVD and a greater risk of death after a nonfatal CVD event.Clinical Trial RegistrationURL: http://www.clinicaltrial.gov Unique identifier: SMART: NCT00027352, ESPRIT: NCT00004978, SILCAAT: NCT00013611.

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice.Methods and FindingsA total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts.In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7–6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3–9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was −2 (interquartile range –4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0–4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166–3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159–278) and 21 (95% CI 19–23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506–1462), 88 (95% CI 69–121), and 9 (95% CI 8–10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor.The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3–12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6–8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria.ConclusionsBoth traditional and HIV-rela...

Ojectives Among a subgroup of participants in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) Trial that were naïve to antiretroviral therapy (ART) or off ART (≥6 months) at study entry, risk of AIDS and serious non-AIDS events was increased for participants who deferred ART compared to those randomized to (re)initiate ART immediately. Our objective was to determine whether ART initiation in this group reduced markers of inflammation and coagulation that have been associated with increased mortality risk in SMART. Changes in these biomarkers have been described after stopping ART, but not after starting ART in SMART. Methods Stored specimens for 254 participants (126 DC and 128 VS) who were naïve to ART or off ART (≥6 months) were analyzed for interleukin-6 (IL-6), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and D-dimer at baseline and months 2 and 6. Results At month 6, 62% of VS group had HIV RNA <400copies/mL and median CD4 count was 190 cells/mm3 higher than for the DC group (590 vs. 400 cells/mm3). Compared with DC, the VS group had 32% (95%CI: 19 to 43%) lower D-dimer levels at month 6 (p<0.001); differences were not significant for hsCRP or IL-6 levels. Conclusions In this randomized comparison of immediate versus delayed ART initiation, D-dimer, but not IL-6 and hsCRP, declined significantly after starting ART. Further studies are needed to determine whether improvements in D-dimer are associated with reduced risk of clinical disease, and whether adjunct treatments used in combination with ART can reduce inflammation among individuals with HIV infection.

Objectives Among patients with HIV, the risk of death associated with different AIDS events has been quantified, but the risk of death associated with non-AIDS events has not been examined. We compared the risk of all-cause mortality following AIDS versus serious non-AIDS (SNA) events in SMART and ESPRIT. Design Data from 9,583 HIV-infected participants, 5,472 with CD4+ >350 cells/mm3 enrolled in SMART and 4,111 with CD4+ ≥300 cells/mm3 enrolled in ESPRIT were analyzed. Methods Cumulative mortality 6 months after AIDS and SNA (cardiovascular, renal, hepatic disease and malignancies) was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) associated with AIDS and SNA on the risk of death overall and by treatment group within study. Results AIDS and SNA occurred in 286 and 435 participants with 47 (16%) and 115 (26%) subsequent deaths, respectively. Six-month cumulative mortality was 4.7% (95%CI:2.8–8.0) after experiencing an AIDS event and 13.4% (95%CI:10.5–17.0) after experiencing an SNA event. The adjusted HR for all-cause mortality for those who experienced AIDS versus those who did not was 4.9 (95%CI:3.6–6.8). The corresponding HR for SNA was 11.4 (95%CI:9.0–14.5) (p<0.001 for difference in HRs). Findings were similar for both treatment groups in SMART and both treatment groups in ESPRIT. Conclusions Among HIV-infected persons with higher CD4+ counts, SNA events occur more frequently and are associated with a greater risk of death than AIDS events. Future research should be aimed at comparing strategies to reduce morbidity and mortality associated with SNA events for HIV-infected persons.