It has long been recognised that the ability to predict the metabolic fate of a chemical substance and the potential toxicity of either the parent compound or its metabolites are important in novel drug design. The popularity of using computer models as an aid in this area has grown considerably in recent years. LHASA Limited has been developing knowledge-based expert systems for toxicity and metabolism prediction in collaboration with industry and regulatory authorities. These systems, DEREK, StAR and METEOR, use rules to describe the relationship between chemical structure and either toxicity in the case of DEREK and StAR, or metabolic fate in the case of METEOR. The rule refinement process for DEREK often involves assessing the predictions for a novel set of compounds and comparing them to their biological assay results as a measure of the system's performance. For example, 266 non-congeneric chemicals from the National Toxicology Program database have been processed through the DEREK mutagenicity knowledge base and the predictions compared to their Salmonella typhimurium mutagenicity data. Initially, 81 of 114 mutagens (71%) and 117 of 152 non-mutagens (77%) were correctly identified. Following further knowledge base development, the number of correctly identified mutagens has increased to 96 (84%). Further work on improving the predictive capabilities of DEREK, StAR and METEOR is in progress.

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The DEREK knowledge-based computer system contains a subset of approximately 50 rules describing chemical substructures (toxophores) responsible for skin sensitization. This rulebase, based originally on Unilever historical in-house guinea pig maximization test data, has been subject to extensive validation and is undergoing refinement as the next stage of its development. As part of an ongoing program of validation and testing, the predictive ability of the sensitization rule set has been assessed by processing the structures of the 84 chemical substances in the list of contact allergens issued by the BgVV (German Federal Institute for Health Protection of Consumers). This list of chemicals is important because the biological data for each of the chemicals have been carefully scrutinized and peer reviewed, a key consideration in an area of toxicology in which much unreliable and potentially misleading data have been published. The existing DEREK rulebase for skin sensitization identified toxophores for skin sensitization in the structures of 71 out of the 84 chemicals (85%). The exercise highlighted areas of chemistry where further development of the rulebase was required, either by extension of the scope of existing rules or by generation of new rules where a sound mechanistic rationale for the biological activity could be established. Chemicals likely to be acting as photoallergens were identified, and new rules for photoallergenicity have subsequently been written. At the end of the exercise, the refined rulebase was able to identify toxophores for skin sensitization for 82 of the 84 chemicals in the BgVV list.

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