This chapter reflects on the existence or not of a new wave of democratisation in the wake of the Arab Spring. It is true that simultaneity, contagion, diffusion and emulation do feature in the political dynamics of change following the Arab Spring. However, rather than a democratic tsunami, there were ebbs and flows of a ‘wave of political change’ that has involved differing transformative processes in each country. Secondly, the author offers a typology of political regimes as well as a classification of MENA regimes prior to the Arab Spring, in order to identify the starting point of political change. Thirdly, different types of political change processes are defined and categorised: two general processes of political change (democratisation and autocratisation); and, five specific processes of political change affecting democracies (democratic regression, democratic deepening and consolidation of democracy) or authoritarianisms (political liberalisation and authoritarian progression). And finally, the author presents the methodological framework used in this book to study political change in the MENA countries. This change is analysed with reference to three dimensions: pluralism and political competition (party/representation systems and electoral integrity); government (constitutional reforms, government and state powers, and good governance; and public rights and liberties (political rights, civil rights, rule of law, and civil society).
This chapter analyses the MENA countries that have experienced negative changes following the Arab Spring: a process of autocratisation in Turkey, authoritarian progressions in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the fragmentation of state authority in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has transited from being a defective democracy to authoritarianism (due to a concentration of power in the hands of president Erdoğan), which has been a more pronounced tendency since the attempted coup d’état in July 2016. Kuwait, one of the ‘less authoritarian’ Arab countries before 2011, has undergone an authoritarian progression as a consequence of the emir’s attempts to control parliament and approve restrictive laws regarding rights and liberties. Likewise, authoritarian progression in Bahrain has been the consequence of a decline in political competition - as a result of the withdrawal of opposition movements from parliament and state repression against any type of opposition. The democratic regime established in 2005 in Iraq currently faces enormous concerns: disabling sectarism, weak governance, and the occupation of much of northwestern Iraq by IS. Violence directed by al-Assad’s regime against protesters provoked a civil war on several fronts and a breakdown of state authority in Syria. The chapter shows that these conflicts in the Middle East, as well as in Yemen, have made the region unstable and represent an enormous international challenge.
This chapter studies the democratic transitions following the fall of the authoritarian rulers in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen. The chapter shows that the only successful democratisation occurred in Tunisia thanks to agreements between political actors, concessions from a dominant party and a strong and participative civil society. On the contrary, despite the Egyptian transition taking place in a similar scenario of polarisation between Islamist and secular parties as in Tunisia, Egyptian transition failed because of a lack of agreement between political forces, an exclusionary process led by the Islamists, and the interference of the army in political affairs. Democratic transition also failed in Libya, due to the lack of prior institutional architecture and of experience of party participation and political groups. Finally, the model of democratic transition that was carried out in Yemen was favourable to the achievement of democracy. It sought a broad social and political consensus for the new state before holding elections and approving a constitution, and had the involvement of the international community in the design and implementation of the transitional road map. However, empowerment of old regime elites in the transition process, the exclusion of revolutionary movements, the lack of consensus to satisfy the demands of the independence movement in the south, and antagonism between political forces and their regional backers have doomed the democratic transition to failure.
En este informe se analiza las consecuencias de la integración comunitaria para la sociedad andaluza y, más concretamente, cómo valoran los andaluces dicho proceso, en qué medida se interesan y se implican por los asuntos relacionados con la UE y hasta qué punto se sienten parte del demos europeo.
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