Autocratisation, authoritarian progressions and fragmented states

Abstract

This chapter analyses the MENA countries that have experienced negative changes following the Arab Spring: a process of autocratisation in Turkey, authoritarian progressions in Kuwait and Bahrain, and the fragmentation of state authority in Syria and Iraq. Turkey has transited from being a defective democracy to authoritarianism (due to a concentration of power in the hands of president Erdoğan), which has been a more pronounced tendency since the attempted coup d’état in July 2016. Kuwait, one of the ‘less authoritarian’ Arab countries before 2011, has undergone an authoritarian progression as a consequence of the emir’s attempts to control parliament and approve restrictive laws regarding rights and liberties. Likewise, authoritarian progression in Bahrain has been the consequence of a decline in political competition - as a result of the withdrawal of opposition movements from parliament and state repression against any type of opposition. The democratic regime established in 2005 in Iraq currently faces enormous concerns: disabling sectarism, weak governance, and the occupation of much of northwestern Iraq by IS. Violence directed by al-Assad’s regime against protesters provoked a civil war on several fronts and a breakdown of state authority in Syria. The chapter shows that these conflicts in the Middle East, as well as in Yemen, have made the region unstable and represent an enormous international challenge.

Democratic disillusionment? Desire for democracy after the Arab uprisings

“…Protests in Sudan were not multi-site/multi-day and numbered only in the low thousands out of a population of around 35 million (Gettleman, 2011; Human Rights Watch, 2011). Contrarily, in Iraq and Lebanon multiple sources report large protests over multiple days in multiple cities (Ahmed, 2016; Szmolka and Durán, 2017; The Daily Star, 2013), although those in Lebanon were less numerous and mainly driven by the Sunnis (Al Jazeera, 2011; Murdock, 2011). Still, given an overall population of roughly one million, thousands can be considered substantial.…”

“…Applying the above definition to the MENA cases means that for three countries political change could be considered to be initial political liberalization: Bahrain, Jordan and Morocco (see Szmolka, 2017: 31; Szmolka and Durán, 2017; Strzelecka and Angustias Parejo, 2017). In Bahrain, protests called for the reform of the constitution and within months a ‘national dialogue’ including opposition leaders was inaugurated.…”

“…Jordan) and (b) only major protest, but no initial political liberalization (e.g. Iraq, where Prime Minister al-Maliki responded with some economic reform, but not political liberalization [Szmolka & Durán, 2017: 418]) were not sufficient for democratic disillusionment. In Yemen there was major protest, but no political liberalization as the very late transitional agreement contained no concrete change and civil war had already broken out (Alley, 2013: 78; Szmolka, 2017).…”