Democratic disillusionment? Desire for democracy after the Arab uprisings

Abstract

Have the Arab uprisings influenced the desire for democracy in the Middle East and North Africa? This study presents a systematic explanation of the different impact the uprisings had on people’s desire for democracy across the region. It applies the relatively new consequence-based theory of democratic attitudes, and integrates the notion of deprivation into it. The expectations derived from this framework are tested empirically by examining data from 45 public opinion surveys in 11 Middle East and North Africa countries (2001–2014) and combining them with a systematic country-level case comparison. The study shows that the desire for democracy drops mainly in countries of major protest and initial political liberalization, but no substantial democratization (e.g. Egypt, Morocco) indeed, and that a lack of major protest or initial reform (e.g. Algeria, Yemen) ‘prevents’ disillusionment. The seemingly exceptional Lebanese and Tunisian cases also show the mechanism holds for specific groups in society: Lebanese Sunnis and the poorest Tunisians.

Political and Socio-Economic Roots of Uprisings in the Arab World

“…In search of peace and harmony, every society has experienced riots and outbursts against injustice and exploitation. A just society with a freedom of expression is the aim of most uprisings, which may lead to social and economic changes (Spierings, 2019). Nevertheless, uprisings have played a decisive role in the evolution of civil society.…”

Democratic commitment in the Middle East: a conjoint analysis

“…Potential gains from democratization, which are speculative, have reduced relative utility in practice. After the Arab Spring, publics that were disappointed in how regime change played out (e.g., social turmoil and economic challenges) evinced less faith in dimuqratiyya in subsequent surveys, and democratic interest took years to recover (Kilavuz and Sumaktoyo, 2020;Spierings, 2020). It is expected that, in framing their preferred state, they favor the successful economic condition.…”