John C Martin Foundation.

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Aims To project the impact of scaling up oral antiviral therapy and harm reduction on chronic hepatitis C (CHC) prevalence and incidence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Greece, to estimate the relationship between required treatment levels and expansion of harm reduction programs to achieve specific targets and to examine whether hepatitis C viruse (HCV) elimination among PWID is possible in this high prevalence setting. Design A dynamic discrete time, stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate HCV transmission among PWID incorporating the effect of HCV treatment and harm reduction strategies, and allowing for reinfection following treatment. Setting/Participants The population of 8,300 PWID in Athens Metropolitan area Measurements Reduction in HCV prevalence and incidence in 2030 compared with 2016. Findings Moderate expansion of HCV treatment (treating 4%–8% of PWID/year), with simultaneous increase of 2%/year in harm reduction coverage (from 44% to 72% coverage over 15 years), was projected to reduce CHC prevalence among PWID in Athens by 46%–90% in 2030, compared with 2016. CHC prevalence would reduce below 10% within the next 4–5 years if annual HCV treatment numbers were increased up to 16%–20% PWID/year. The effect of harm reduction on incidence was more pronounced under lower treatment rates. Conclusions Based on theoretical model projections, scaled-up hepatitis C virus (HCV) treatment and harm reduction interventions could achieve major reductions in HCV incidence and prevalence among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece by 2030. Chronic hepatitis C could be eliminated in the next 4–5 years by increasing treatment to more than 16% of PWID per year combined with moderate increases in harm reduction coverage.

BackgroundElimination of hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID) is a costly investment, so strategies should not only focus on eliminating the disease, but also on preventing disease resurgence. The aims of this study are to compute the minimum necessary antiviral therapies to achieve elimination with and without the additional expansion of harm reduction (HR) programs and to examine the sustainability of HCV elimination after 2030 if treatment is discontinued.MethodWe considered two types of epidemic (with low (30%) and high (50%) proportion of PWID who engage in sharing equipment (sharers)) within three baseline chronic HCV (CHC) prevalence settings (30%, 45% and 60%), assuming a baseline HR coverage of 40%. We define sustainable elimination strategies, those that could maintain eliminations results for a decade (2031–2040), in the absence of additional treatment.ResultsThe model shows that the optimum elimination strategy is dependent on risk sharing behavior of the examined population. The necessary annual treatment coverage to achieve HCV elimination under 45% baseline CHC prevalence, without the simultaneous expansion of HR programs, ranges between 4.7–5.1%. Similarly, under 60% baseline CHC prevalence the needed treatment coverage varies from 9.0–10.5%. Increasing HR coverage from 40% to 75%, reduces the required treatment coverage by 6.5–9.8% and 11.0–15.0% under 45% or 60% CHC prevalence, respectively. In settings with ≤45% baseline CHC prevalence, expanding HR to 75% could prevent the disease from rebounding after elimination, irrespective of the type of the epidemic. In high chronic HCV prevalence, counseling interventions to reduce sharing are also needed to maintain the HCV incident cases in low levels.ConclusionsHarm reduction strategies have a vital role in HCV elimination strategy, as they reduce the required number of treatments to eliminate HCV and they provide sustainability after the elimination. The above underlines that HCV elimination strategies should be built upon the existing HR services, and argue for HR expansion in countries without services.

BACKGROUNDHepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of worldwide liver-related morbidity and mortality. The World Health Organization released an integrated strategy targeting HCV-elimination by 2030. This study aims to estimate the required interventions to achieve elimination using updated information for direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatment coverage, to compute the total costs (including indirect/societal costs) of the strategy and to identify whether the elimination strategy is cost-effective/cost-saving in Greece.AIMTo estimate the required interventions and subsequent costs to achieve HCV elimination in Greece.METHODSA previously validated mathematical model was adapted to the Greek HCV-infected population to compare the outcomes of DAA treatment without the additional implementation of awareness or screening campaigns versus an HCV elimination strategy, which includes a sufficient number of treated patients. We estimated the total costs (direct and indirect costs), the disability-adjusted life years and the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio using two different price scenarios.RESULTSWithout the implementation of awareness or screening campaigns, approximately 20000 patients would be diagnosed and treated with DAAs by 2030. This strategy would result in a 19.6% increase in HCV-related mortality in 2030 compared to 2015. To achieve the elimination goal, 90000 patients need to be treated by 2030. Under the elimination scenario, viremic cases would decrease by 78.8% in 2030 compared to 2015. The cumulative direct costs to eliminate the disease would range from 2.1-2.3 billion euros (€) by 2030, while the indirect costs would be €1.1 billion. The total elimination cost in Greece would range from €3.2-3.4 billion by 2030. The cost per averted disability-adjusted life year is estimated between €10100 and €13380, indicating that the elimination strategy is very cost-effective. Furthermore, HCV elimination strategy would save €560-895 million by 2035.CONCLUSIONWithout large screening programs, elimination of HCV cannot be achieved. The HCV elimination strategy is feasible and cost-saving despite the uncertainty of the future cost of DAAs in Greece.

Elimination of HCV in Greece by 2030 necessitates great improvements in primary prevention, implementation of large screening programs and high treatment coverage.

Objectives The aim of the study was to assess the impact of social distancing interventions in Greece and to examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented. Study design A dynamic, discrete time, stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. Methods The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use in Greece. Results If Greece had not implemented social distancing interventions, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed between March 30 and April 4. The combined social distancing interventions and increase in ICU beds averted 4360 (95% credible interval: 3050, 5700) deaths and prevented the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. Conclusions The quick and accurate interventions of the Greek government limited the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak.