Act early, save lives: managing COVID-19 in Greece

Abstract

Objectives The aim of the study was to assess the impact of social distancing interventions in Greece and to examine what would have happened if those interventions had not been implemented. Study design A dynamic, discrete time, stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) transmission. Methods The model was fitted to the observed trends in COVID-19 deaths and intensive care unit (ICU) bed use in Greece. Results If Greece had not implemented social distancing interventions, the healthcare system would have been overwhelmed between March 30 and April 4. The combined social distancing interventions and increase in ICU beds averted 4360 (95% credible interval: 3050, 5700) deaths and prevented the healthcare system from becoming overwhelmed. Conclusions The quick and accurate interventions of the Greek government limited the burden of the COVID-19 outbreak.

Effect of public health interventions during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Cyprus: a modelling study

“…Comparing the different interventions, social distancing measures were more important to flattening the epidemic peak and reducing the pressure on the health care system than the increase of the ICU bed capacity only. Consistent with previous work [ 6 , 7 ], our results highlighted that any intervention to boost only ICU bed capacity would not have been an effective healthcare policy, as the demand for ICU beds would rapidly outrun availability. Figure 2B displays that after April 10th, 2020, the demand for ICU beds would have increased exponentially.…”

“…This means that, during the first epidemic wave, each individual diagnosed with COVID-19 in Cyprus corresponded to about two undiagnosed cases. The corresponding ratios for Germany, Spain, Sweden, and Greece were 23.5, 9.8, 6.1, and 24%, respectively [ 3 , 6 , 26 ]. It is important that the efficacy of the testing strategy to control COVID-19 is strongly dependent on the efficiency of backward contact tracing and adherence of the infected individuals to isolation.…”

“…Although Cyprus’ response seems successful in controlling the first wave of COVID-19, it is important to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of the applied interventions. Notably, a significant number of countries have based their public health decisions on the results of these studies [ 3 , 6 – 13 ].…”

Effect of public health interventions during the first epidemic wave of COVID-19 in Cyprus: a modelling study

“…Comparing the different interventions, social distancing measures were more important to flattening the epidemic peak and reducing the pressure on the health care system than the increase of the ICU bed capacity only. Consistent with previous work (7, 9), our results highlighted that any intervention to boost only ICU bed capacity would not have been an effective healthcare policy, as the demand for ICU beds would rapidly outrun availability. Figure 2b displays that after April 10 th , the demand for ICU beds would have increased exponentially.…”

“…This means that, during the first epidemic wave, each individual diagnosed with COVID-19 in Cyprus corresponded to about two undiagnosed cases. The corresponding ratios for Germany, Spain, Sweden, and Greece were 23.5%, 9.8%, 6.1%, and 24%, respectively (3, 7, 21). It is important that the efficacy of the testing strategy to control COVID-19 is strongly dependent on the efficiency of backward contact tracing and adherence of the infected individuals to isolation.…”