[1] The M w 7.8 October 2010 Mentawai, Indonesia, earthquake was a "tsunami earthquake," a rare type of earthquake that generates a tsunami much larger than expected based on the seismic magnitude. It produced a locally devastating tsunami, with runup commonly in excess of 6 m. We examine this event using a combination of high-rate GPS data, from instruments located on the nearby islands, and a tsunami field survey. The GPS displacement time series are deficient in high-frequency energy, and show small coseismic displacements (<22 cm horizontal and <4 cm subsidence). The field survey shows that maximum tsunami runup was >16 m. Our modeling results show that the combination of the small GPS displacements and large tsunami can only be explained by high fault slip at very shallow depths, far from the islands and close to the oceanic trench. Inelastic uplift of trench sediments likely contributed to the size of the tsunami. Recent results for the 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoko-Oki earthquake have also shown shallow fault slip, but the results from our study, which involves a smaller earthquake, provide much stronger constraints on how shallow the rupture can be, with the majority of slip for the Mentawai earthquake occurring at depths of <6 km. This result challenges the conventional wisdom that the shallow tips of subduction megathrusts are aseismic, and therefore raises important questions both about the mechanical properties of the shallow fault zone and the potential seismic and tsunami hazard of this shallow region.Citation: Hill, E. M., et al. (2012), The 2010 M w 7.8 Mentawai earthquake: Very shallow source of a rare tsunami earthquake determined from tsunami field survey and near-field GPS data,

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10 % for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10 % in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1 % for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence based decision making on risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc, with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time independent forecasts of tsunami hazard at the coast from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte-carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and through sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500–2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting larger maximum magnitudes along the Sunda Arc. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height at the coast of > 0.5 m is greater than 10% for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda Islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of >3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1–10% in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1–1% for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

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Tsunami hazard maps are generated for the coastline of the Mentawai Islands, West Sumatra, Indonesia, to support evacuation and disaster response planning. A random heterogeneous slip generator is used to forward model a suite of earthquake rupture scenarios on the Mentawai Segment of the Sunda Subduction Zone. Up to 1000 rupture models that fit constraints provided by coral and geodetic records of coseismic vertical deformation from major earthquakes in 1797, 1833 and 2007 are used to model inundation and to define a maximum inundation zone that envelopes all of these scenarios. Comparison with single-scenario hazard assessments developed by experts and agreed through scientific consensus shows that there is value in modelling a suite of scenarios in order to obtain a more robust and conservative estimate of potential inundated areas. Although both the model presented here and the single-scenario models are based on assumptions about the characteristics of future events using knowledge of past events, by sampling a range of plausible outcomes we gain a more robust estimate of which areas may be inundated during a tsunami within the bounds of the assumptions applied. Purpose of the hazard assessmentTo plan for tsunami evacuation at the community level, information is needed about which areas of the coast may be inundated during a tsunami event. Based on this information, communities can identify safe evacuation areas outside the inundation zone and the most efficient routes to reach these safe areas. For a government considering life safety as the first priority in managing a disaster, it is reasonable to plan evacuation areas based on a deterministic assessment of 'maximum credible' or 'worst-case' scenarios, to the extent that scientific knowledge, conservatism and the assumptions that we make can define these scenarios. In contrast, disaster management strategies targeting other losses (e.g. economic losses) accept a different level of risk and are designed for a certain level of risk tolerance based on probabilistic hazard assessments.

Eastern Mediterranean Sea has experienced four tsunamigenic earthquakes since 2017, which delivered moderate damage to coastal communities in Turkey and Greece. The most recent of these tsunamis occurred on 30 October 2020 in the Aegean Sea, which was generated by an Mw 7.0 normal-faulting earthquake, offshore Izmir province (Turkey) and Samos Island (Greece). The earthquake was destructive and caused death tolls of 117 and 2 in Turkey and Greece, respectively. The tsunami produced moderate damage and killed one person in Turkey. Due to the semi-enclosed nature of the Aegean Sea basin, any tsunami perturbation in this sea is expected to trigger several basin oscillations. Here, we study the 2020 tsunami through sea level data analysis and numerical simulations with the aim of further understanding tsunami behavior in the Aegean Sea. Analysis of data from available tide gauges showed that the maximum zero-to-crest tsunami amplitude was 5.1–11.9 cm. The arrival times of the maximum tsunami wave were up to 14.9 h after the first tsunami arrivals at each station. The duration of tsunami oscillation was from 19.6 h to > 90 h at various tide gauges. Spectral analysis revealed several peak periods for the tsunami; we identified the tsunami source periods as 14.2–23.3 min. We attributed other peak periods (4.5 min, 5.7 min, 6.9 min, 7.8 min, 9.9 min, 10.2 min and 32.0 min) to non-source phenomena such as basin and sub-basin oscillations. By comparing surveyed run-up and coastal heights with simulated ones, we noticed the north-dipping fault model better reproduces the tsunami observations as compared to the south-dipping fault model. However, we are unable to choose a fault model because the surveyed run-up data are very limited and are sparsely distributed. Additional researches on this event using other types of geophysical data are required to determine the actual fault plane of the earthquake.

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