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magnitude M w 7.8 earthquake off the south coast of western Java, Indonesia, generated a tsunami that effected over 300 km of coastline and killed more than 600 people, with locally focused runup heights exceeding 20 m. This slow earthquake was hardly felt on Java, and wind waves breaking masked any preceding withdrawal of the water from the shoreline, making this tsunami difficult to detect before impact. An International Tsunami Survey Team was deployed within one week and the investigation covered more than 600 km of coastline. Measured tsunami heights and run-up distributions were uniform at 5 to 7 m along 200 km of coast; however there was a pronounced peak on the south coast of Nusa Kambangan, where the tsunami impact carved a sharp trimline in a forest at elevations up to 21 m and 1 km inland. Local flow depth exceeded 8 m along the elevated coastal plain between the beach and the hill slope. We infer that the focused tsunami and runup heights on the island suggest a possible local submarine slump or mass movement.

Abstract. Probabilistic hazard assessments are a fundamental tool for assessing the threats posed by hazards to communities and are important for underpinning evidence-based decision-making regarding risk mitigation activities. Indonesia has been the focus of intense tsunami risk mitigation efforts following the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, but this has been largely concentrated on the Sunda Arc with little attention to other tsunami prone areas of the country such as eastern Indonesia. We present the first nationally consistent probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for Indonesia. This assessment produces time-independent forecasts of tsunami hazards at the coast using data from tsunami generated by local, regional and distant earthquake sources. The methodology is based on the established monte carlo approach to probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and has been adapted to tsunami. We account for sources of epistemic and aleatory uncertainty in the analysis through the use of logic trees and sampling probability density functions. For short return periods (100 years) the highest tsunami hazard is the west coast of Sumatra, south coast of Java and the north coast of Papua. For longer return periods (500-2500 years), the tsunami hazard is highest along the Sunda Arc, reflecting the larger maximum magnitudes. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 0.5 m at the coast is greater than 10 % for Sumatra, Java, the Sunda islands (Bali, Lombok, Flores, Sumba) and north Papua. The annual probability of experiencing a tsunami with a height of > 3.0 m, which would cause significant inundation and fatalities, is 1-10 % in Sumatra, Java, Bali, Lombok and north Papua, and 0.1-1 % for north Sulawesi, Seram and Flores. The results of this national-scale hazard assessment provide evidence for disaster managers to prioritise regions for risk mitigation activities and/or more detailed hazard or risk assessment.

The 25 October 2010 Mentawai tsunami earthquake (M w 7.8) ruptured the shallow portion of the Sunda megathrust seaward of the Mentawai Islands, offshore of Sumatra, Indonesia, generating a strong tsunami that took 509 lives. The rupture zone was updip of those of the 12 September 2007 M w 8.5 and 7.9 underthrusting earthquakes. High-rate (1 s sampling) GPS instruments of the Sumatra GPS Array network deployed on the Mentawai Islands and Sumatra mainland recorded time-varying and static ground displacements at epicentral distances from 49 to 322 km. Azimuthally distributed tsunami recordings from two deepwater sensors and two tide gauges that have local high-resolution bathymetric information provide additional constraints on the source process. Finite-fault rupture models, obtained by joint inversion of the high-rate (hr)-GPS time series and numerous teleseismic broadband P and S wave seismograms together with iterative forward modeling of the tsunami recordings, indicate rupture propagation~50 km up dip and~100 km northwest along strike from the hypocenter, with a rupture velocity of~1.8 km/s. Subregions with large slip extend from 7 to 10 km depth~80 km northwest from the hypocenter with a maximum slip of 8 m and from~5 km depth to beneath thin horizontal sedimentary layers beyond the prism deformation front for~100 km along strike, with a localized region having >15 m of slip. The seismic moment is 7.2 × 10 20 N m. The rupture model indicates that local heterogeneities in the shallow megathrust can accumulate strain that allows some regions near the toe of accretionary prisms to fail in tsunami earthquakes.

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