A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Horspool, Nick; Pranantyo, Ignatius Ryan; Griffin, Jonathan; Latief, Hamzah; Natawidjaja, D. H.; Kongko, Widjo; Cipta, Athanasius; Koetapangwa, B.; Anugrah, Suci Dewi; Thio, Hong Kie

doi:10.5194/nhessd-2-3423-2014

Cited by 40 publications

(52 citation statements)

References 58 publications

(87 reference statements)

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“…Jaya and Limin are both lecturers from the Palangkaraya 460 University in Kalimantan, where this forest fire occurred across the rain forest and impacted not only Indonesia but also the countries in the region such as Singapore (Tay, 1998) and Malaysia (Khandekar et al, 2000). Subarya, Natawidjaja, along with Sieh contributed the most (Briggs et al, 2006;Hill et al, 2012;Horspool et al, 2014;Hsu et al, 2006;Konca et al, 2008;Muhari et al, 2010;Nalbant et al, 2005;Philibosian et al, 2012;Prayoedhie et al, 2012;Schlurmann et al, 2010;Singh et al, 2010). 465 A closer examination on the list of ten most cited publications with Indonesian as first author shows a very striking picture.…”

Section: Overallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review

Djalante

2016

Preprint

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Abstract. The number of disasters due to natural hazards and climate change are on the rise. Within the last decade the world has experienced the most frequent and impactful disasters. The year 2015 was the hottest year ever and the associated disaster impacts have drastically increased the cost to the society socially and economically. The Asia Pacific region has 10 been the place where these disasters occur the most. Indonesia, one of the countries in this region, is one of the most at risks from disasters and climate change impacts in this region.This paper aims to do a systematic literature review on published academic materials related to hazards, risks, disaster risks reduction (DRR) and climate change in Indonesia. Systematic literature review is defined as systematic or evidence-based literature reviews with explicit and transparent methods and follows a standard protocol or a series of stages so that bias can 15 be reduced and more importantly able to provide a comprehensive body of knowledge. While there is a vast material that have been published related to hazards and DRR on Indonesia, there has not yet a literature review that examines these materials in a comprehensive and systematic way. This systematic review is important since it outlines recent research progress over time which can help to determine which topics have been heavily researched and thus seeks to recommend future research needs. The author conducts a multi-staged literature review to study publications that are indexed within 20 SCOPUS. Multi-stage processes are taken to determine inclusion and exclusion for more relevant findings. The author also consults authors' and organizations profiles from Google Scholar, Research Gate, to determine gender, affiliations, and extent of publications.The first stage of search from Scopus gives a list of 5253 publications by which after second stage gives 1478 publications and third stage gives a final most relevant publication of 744. The findings are outlined in two parts. One on the results of the 25 analysis in terms of times of publications, most active researchers and research organizations, most cited papers, and categorization of major research topics. The other one is on the examinations on the roles of Indonesian authors and organizations in publishing in international journals, involvement in highly cited papers, and how collaborations have taken place amongst Indonesian and international researchers and organizations. This thus led to recommendations for capacity building in research in Indonesia. 30The findings on the first part are as follow. The final selected publications are categorized into three major topics of (1) hazard, risks and disaster assessments (HRD), (2) disaster risk reduction (DRR), and (3) climate change vulnerability, impacts and adaptation (CC). Publications on the category of HRD are comprised of more than half of the total publications, while the rest is divided amongst those related to DRR and CC. The oldest publication was issued in 1978 and the earlier perio...

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Section: Overallmentioning

confidence: 99%

Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review

Djalante

2016

Preprint

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“…10 It is rare that that uncertainties of the DEM data and roughness coefficients are taken into account in conducting tsunami simulations but adopting the same modelling philosophy as the PSHA of the last section, probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) has been developed and applied to some major tsunami-prone regions (e.g. Annaka et al, 2007;Thio et al, 2007;Horspool et al, 2014). The main focus and advantage of PTHA are to integrate potential tsunami hazards from various 15 sources (both near-field and far-field) in a probabilistic framework.…”

Section: Uncertainty Quantification In Tsunami Hazard Estimationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas

Beven¹,

Almeida²,

Aspinall³

et al. 2017

Preprint

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This paper discusses how epistemic uncertainties are considered in a number of different natural hazard areas including floods, landslides and debris flows, dam safety, droughts, earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic ash clouds and pyroclastic flows, and wind storms. In each case it is common practice to treat most uncertainties in the form of aleatory 20 probability distributions but this may lead to an underestimation of the resulting uncertainties in assessing the hazard, consequences and risk. It is suggested that such analyses might be usefully extended by looking at different scenarios of assumptions about sources of epistemic uncertainty, with a view to reducing the element of surprise in future hazard occurrences. Since every analysis is necessarily conditional on the assumptions made about the nature of sources of epistemic uncertainty it is also important to follow the guidelines for good practice suggested in the companion Part 2. 25

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“…In the first category, PTHA is conducted using tsunami catalogs (Burroughs and Tebbens 2005;Kulikov et al 2005;Tinti et al 2005;Orfanogiannaki and Papadopoulos 2007), whereas in the second category, different ''scenario-based'' PTHA methods are suggested (Geist and Dmowska 1999;Downes and Stirling 2001;Farreras et al 2007;Liu et al 2007;Power et al 2007;Yanagisawa et al 2007; Burbidge et al 2008;González et al 2009;Løvholt et al 2012). In the third category, a combination of the previous two is considered (Geist 2005;Geist and Parsons 2006;Annaka et al 2007;Thio et al 2007;Burbidge et al 2008;Parsons and Geist 2009;Grezio et al 2010Grezio et al , 2012Horspool et al 2014;Fukutani et al 2016). Recently, De Risi and Goda (2016) have developed a new simulation-based multihazards approach for ground motions and tsunamis.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

Risi

Goda

2017

Pure Appl. Geophys.

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Abstract-Probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is the prerequisite for rigorous risk assessment and thus for decisionmaking regarding risk mitigation strategies. This paper proposes a new simulation-based methodology for tsunami hazard assessment for a specific site of an engineering project along the coast, or, more broadly, for a wider tsunami-prone region. The methodology incorporates numerous uncertain parameters that are related to geophysical processes by adopting new scaling relationships for tsunamigenic seismic regions. Through the proposed methodology it is possible to obtain either a tsunami hazard curve for a single location, that is the representation of a tsunami intensity measure (such as inundation depth) versus its mean annual rate of occurrence, or tsunami hazard maps, representing the expected tsunami intensity measures within a geographical area, for a specific probability of occurrence in a given time window. In addition to the conventional tsunami hazard curve that is based on an empirical statistical representation of the simulation-based PTHA results, this study presents a robust tsunami hazard curve, which is based on a Bayesian fitting methodology. The robust approach allows a significant reduction of the number of simulations and, therefore, a reduction of the computational effort. Both methods produce a central estimate of the hazard as well as a confidence interval, facilitating the rigorous quantification of the hazard uncertainties.

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A~probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Indonesia

Cited by 40 publications

References 58 publications

Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review

Research trends on hazards, disasters, risk reduction and climate change in Indonesia: a systematic literature review

Epistemic uncertainties and natural hazard risk assessment. 1. A review of different natural hazard areas

Simulation-Based Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis: Empirical and Robust Hazard Predictions

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