Agricultural expansion and climate variability have become important agents of disturbance in the Amazon basin. Recent studies have demonstrated considerable resilience of Amazonian forests to moderate annual drought, but they also show that interactions between deforestation, fire and drought potentially lead to losses of carbon storage and changes in regional precipitation patterns and river discharge. Although the basin-wide impacts of land use and drought may not yet surpass the magnitude of natural variability of hydrologic and biogeochemical cycles, there are some signs of a transition to a disturbance-dominated regime. These signs include changing energy and water cycles in the southern and eastern portions of the Amazon basin.

In 2005, large sections of southwestern Amazonia experienced one of the most intense droughts of the last hundred years. The drought severely affected human population along the main channel of the Amazon River and its western and southwestern tributaries, the Solimões (also known as the Amazon River in the other Amazon countries) and the Madeira Rivers, respectively. The river levels fell to historic low levels and navigation along these rivers had to be suspended. The drought did not affect central or eastern Amazonia, a pattern different from the El Niño-related droughts in 1926, 1983, and 1998. The choice of rainfall data used influenced the detection of the drought. While most datasets (station or gridded data) showed negative departures from mean rainfall, one dataset exhibited above-normal rainfall in western Amazonia.The causes of the drought were not related to El Niño but to (i) the anomalously warm tropical North Atlantic, (ii) the reduced intensity in northeast trade wind moisture transport into southern Amazonia during the peak summertime season, and (iii) the weakened upward motion over this section of Amazonia, resulting in reduced convective development and rainfall. The drought conditions were intensified during the dry season into September 2005 when humidity was lower than normal and air temperatures were 3°-5°C warmer than normal. Because of the extended dry season in the region, forest fires affected part of southwestern Amazonia.

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Living trees constitute one of the major stocks of carbon in tropical forests. A better understanding of variations in the dynamics and structure of tropical forests is necessary for predicting the potential for these ecosystems to lose or store carbon, and for understanding how they recover from disturbance. Amazonian tropical forests occur over a vast area that encompasses differences in topography, climate, and geologic substrate. We observed large differences in forest structure, biomass, and tree growth rates in permanent plots situated in the eastern (near Santarém, Pará), central (near Manaus, Amazonas) and southwestern (near Rio Branco, Acre) Amazon, which differed in dry season length, as well as other factors. Forests at the two sites experiencing longer dry seasons, near Rio Branco and Santarém, had lower stem frequencies (460 and 466 ha −1 respectively), less biodiversity (Shannon-Wiener diversity index), and smaller aboveground C stocks (140.6 and 122.1 Mg C ha ), which had less seasonal variation in rainfall. The forests experiencing longer dry seasons also stored a greater proportion of the total biomass in trees with >50 cm diameter (41-45 vs 30% in Manaus). Rates of annual addition of C to living trees calculated from monthly dendrometer band measurements were 1.9 (Manaus), 2.8 (Santarém), and 2.6 (Rio Branco) Mg C ha. At all sites, trees in the 10-30 cm diameter class accounted for the highest proportion of annual growth (38, 55 and 56% in Manaus, Rio Branco and Santarém, respectively). Growth showed marked seasonality, with largest stem diameter increment in the wet season and smallest in the dry season, though this may be confounded by seasonal variation in wood water content. Year-to-year variations in C allocated to stem growth ranged from nearly zero in Rio Branco, to 0.8 Mg C ha −1 year −1 in Manaus (40% of annual mean) and 0.9 Mg C ha −1 year −1 (33% of annual mean) in Santarém, though this variability showed no significant relation with precipitation among years. Initial estimates of the C balance of live wood including recruitment and mortality as well as growth suggests that live wood biomass is at near steady-state in Manaus, but accumulating at about 1.5 Mg C ha −1 at the other two sites. The causes of C imbalance in living wood pools in Santarém and Rio Branco sites are unknown, but may be related to previous disturbance at these sites. Based on size distribution and growth rate differences in the three sites, we predict that trees in the Manaus forest have greater mean age (~240 years) than those of the other two forests (~140 years).

Drought-induced wildfires have increased in frequency and extent over the tropics. Yet, the long-term (greater than 10 years) responses of Amazonian lowland forests to fire disturbance are poorly known. To understand post-fire forest biomass dynamics, and to assess the time required for fire-affected forests to recover to pre-disturbance levels, we combined 16 single with 182 multiple forest census into a unique large-scale and long-term dataset across the Brazilian Amazonia. We quantified biomass, mortality and wood productivity of burned plots along a chronosequence of up to 31 years post-fire and compared to surrounding unburned plots measured simultaneously. Stem mortality and growth were assessed among functional groups. At the plot level, we found that fire-affected forests have biomass levels 24.8 ± 6.9% below the biomass value of unburned control plots after 31 years. This lower biomass state results from the elevated levels of biomass loss through mortality, which is not sufficiently compensated for by wood productivity (incremental growth + recruitment). At the stem level, we found major changes in mortality and growth rates up to 11 years post-fire. The post-fire stem mortality rates exceeded unburned control plots by 680% (i.e. greater than 40 cm diameter at breast height (DBH); 5–8 years since last fire) and 315% (i.e. greater than 0.7 g cm −3 wood density; 0.75–4 years since last fire). Our findings indicate that wildfires in humid tropical forests can significantly reduce forest biomass for decades by enhancing mortality rates of all trees, including large and high wood density trees, which store the largest amount of biomass in old-growth forests. This assessment of stem dynamics, therefore, demonstrates that wildfires slow down or stall the post-fire recovery of Amazonian forests. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications’.

Leaves of 208 trees were collected for isotopic analysis together with wood from 36 tree boles and 18 samples of fine litter from a terra-firme forest located at Samuel Ecological Reserve, Rondônia State, in the southwestern Amazon region. The range of δC values in leaves was from -28 to -36‰, with an average (±1 SD) of -32.1 ± 1.5‰, which was more negative than the δC values of bole samples (-28.4 ± 2.0‰) and fine litter (-28.7 ± 2.0‰). These values are within the range found for tropical and subtropical forests. Pooling the δC values for leaf samples from trees of the same height gave averages which were positively correlated with plant height at a highly significant level, with a slope of 0.06 and an intercept of -33.3‰ and a correlation coefficient r =0.70 (P<0.001).

Some coupled land-climate models predict a dieback of Amazon forest during the twenty-first century due to climate change, but human land use in the region has already reduced the forest cover. The causation behind land use is complex, and includes economic, institutional, political and demographic factors. Pre-eminent among these factors is road building, which facilitates human access to natural resources that beget forest fragmentation. While official government road projects have received considerable attention, unofficial road building by interest groups is expanding more rapidly, especially where official roads are being paved, yielding highly fragmented forest mosaics. Effective governance of natural resources in the Amazon requires a combination of state oversight and community participation in a 'hybrid' model of governance. The MAP Initiative in the southwestern Amazon provides an example of an innovative hybrid approach to environmental governance. It embodies a polycentric structure that includes government agencies, NGOs, universities and communities in a planning process that links scientific data to public deliberations in order to mitigate the effects of new infrastructure and climate change.

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