To issue early warnings for the public to act, for emergency managers to take preventive actions, and for water managers to operate their systems cost-effectively, it is necessary to maximize the time horizon over which streamflow forecasts are skillful. In this work, we assess the value of medium-range ensemble precipitation forecasts generated with the Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast Service (HEFS) of the U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) in increasing the lead time and skill of streamflow forecasts for five headwater basins in the upper Trinity River basin in north-central Texas. The HEFS uses ensemble mean precipitation forecasts from the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) of the National Centers for Environment Prediction (NCEP). For comparative evaluation, we verify ensemble streamflow forecasts generated with the HEFS forced by the GEFS forecast with those forced by the short-range quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) from the NWS West Gulf River Forecast Center (WGRFC) based on guidance from the NCEP’s Weather Prediction Center. We also assess the benefits of postprocessing the raw ensemble streamflow forecasts and evaluate the impact of selected parameters within the HEFS on forecast quality. The results show that the use of medium-range precipitation forecasts from the GEFS with the HEFS extends the time horizon for skillful forecasting of mean daily streamflow by 1–3 days for significant events when compared with using only the 72-h River Forecast Center (RFC) QPF with the HEFS. The HEFS forced by the GEFS also improves the skill of two-week-ahead biweekly streamflow forecast by about 20% over climatological forecast for the largest 1% of the observed biweekly flow.
Shear wave velocity (Vs) is one of the most important parameters of a geological model to assess the site effect and the ground response. In this paper the spatial variability of shear wave velocity in Mashhad capital city are investigated. For this purpose, 243 Vs profiles of different projects throughout the city were used. Based on the Vs profiles the iso-level maps of the Vs interfaces 300, 500, 750, 950 and 1200 m/s were obtained by kriging interpolation method. The best semivariogram models were obtained with changing the effective parameters and assessing the components of the models and spatial dependence. The best models for the entire interfaces were exponential. Based on these models, the spatial dependence of depth data was moderate to strong. The performance of interpolations was checked by cross-validation and its indices i.e. mean standardized prediction errors (MSPR), root mean square prediction errors (RMSPE), average kriging standard error (AKSE), and root mean square standardized prediction errors (RMSSPE) were assessed. A trend of depth increasing towards the northeast was observed at all of the interfaces.
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