Influenza A H1N1/2009 virus that emerged from swine rapidly replaced the previous seasonal H1N1 virus. Although the early emergence and diversification of H1N1/2009 is well characterized, the ongoing evolutionary and global transmission dynamics of the virus remain poorly investigated. To address this we analyse >3,000 H1N1/2009 genomes, including 214 full genomes generated from our surveillance in Singapore, in conjunction with antigenic data. Here we show that natural selection acting on H1N1/2009 directly after introduction into humans was driven by adaptation to the new host. Since then, selection has been driven by immunological escape, with these changes corresponding to restricted antigenic diversity in the virus population. We also show that H1N1/2009 viruses have been subject to regular seasonal bottlenecks and a global reduction in antigenic and genetic diversity in 2014.

BackgroundDuring the influenza pandemic of 2009 estimates of symptomatic and asymptomatic infection were needed to guide vaccination policies and inform other control measures. Serological studies are the most reliable way to measure influenza infection independent of symptoms. We reviewed all published serological studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of infection with pandemic influenza H1N1 2009 prior to the initiation of population-based vaccination against the pandemic strain.Methodology and Principal FindingsWe searched for studies that estimated the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection in the wider community. We excluded studies that did not include both pre- and post-pandemic serological sampling and studies that included response to vaccination. We identified 47 potentially eligible studies and included 12 of them in the review. Where there had been a significant first wave, the cumulative incidence of pandemic influenza infection was reported in the range 16%–28% in pre-school aged children, 34%–43% in school aged children and 12%–15% in young adults. Only 2%–3% of older adults were infected. The proportion of the entire population infected ranged from 11%–18%. We re-estimated the cumulative incidence to account for the small proportion of infections that may not have been detected by serology, and performed direct age-standardisation to the study population. For those countries where it could be calculated, this suggested a population cumulative incidence in the range 11%–21%.Conclusions and SignificanceAround the world, the cumulative incidence of infection (which is higher than the cumulative incidence of clinical disease) was below that anticipated prior to the pandemic. Serological studies need to be routine in order to be sufficiently timely to provide support for decisions about vaccination.

Avian influenza virus (AIV) surveillance in Antarctica during 2013 revealed the prevalence of evolutionarily distinct influenza viruses of the H11N2 subtype in Adélie penguins. Here we present results from the continued surveillance of AIV on the Antarctic Peninsula during 2014 and 2015. In addition to the continued detection of H11 subtype viruses in a snowy sheathbill during 2014, we isolated a novel H5N5 subtype virus from a chinstrap penguin during 2015. Gene sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed that the H11 virus detected in 2014 had a >99.1% nucleotide similarity to the H11N2 viruses isolated in 2013, suggesting the continued prevalence of this virus in Antarctica over multiple years. However, phylogenetic analysis of the H5N5 virus showed that the genome segments were recently introduced to the continent, except for the NP gene, which was similar to that in the endemic H11N2 viruses. Our analysis indicates geographically diverse origins for the H5N5 virus genes, with the majority of its genome segments derived from North American lineage viruses but the neuraminidase gene derived from a Eurasian lineage virus. In summary, we show the persistence of AIV lineages in Antarctica over multiple years, the recent introduction of gene segments from diverse regions, and reassortment between different AIV lineages in Antarctica, which together significantly increase our understanding of AIV ecology in this fragile and pristine environment.IMPORTANCE Analysis of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) detected in Antarctica reveals both the relatively recent introduction of an H5N5 AIV, predominantly of North American-like origin, and the persistence of an evolutionarily divergent H11 AIV. These data demonstrate that the flow of viruses from North America may be more common than initially thought and that, once introduced, these AIVs have the potential to be maintained within Antarctica. The future introduction of AIVs from North America into the Antarctic Peninsula is of particular concern given that highly pathogenic H5Nx viruses have recently been circulating among wild birds in parts of Canada and the Unites States following the movement of these viruses from Eurasia via migratory birds. The introduction of a highly pathogenic influenza virus in penguin colonies within Antarctica might have devastating consequences.

Background Interseasonal influenza outbreaks are not unusual in countries with temperate climates and well-defined influenza seasons. Usually, these are small and diminish before the main influenza season begins. However, the 2018/19 summer-autumn interseasonal influenza period in Australia saw unprecedented large and widespread influenza outbreaks. Aim Our objective was to determine the extent of the intense 2018/19 interseasonal influenza outbreaks in Australia epidemiologically and examine the genetic, antigenic and structural properties of the viruses responsible for these outbreaks. Methods This observational study combined the epidemiological and virological surveillance data obtained from the Australian Government Department of Health, the New South Wales Ministry of Health, sentinel outpatient surveillance, public health laboratories and data generated by the World Health Organization Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza in Melbourne and the Singapore Agency for Science, Technology and Research. Results There was a record number of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases during the interseasonal period November 2018 to May 2019 (n= 85,286; 5 times the previous 3-year average) and also more institutional outbreaks, hospitalisations and deaths, than what is normally seen. Conclusions The unusually large interseasonal influenza outbreaks in 2018/19 followed a mild 2018 influenza season and resulted in a very early start to the 2019 influenza season across Australia. The reasons for this unusual event have yet to be fully elucidated but are likely to be a complex mix of climatic, virological and host immunity-related factors. These outbreaks reinforce the need for year-round surveillance of influenza, even in temperate climates with strong seasonality patterns.

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