Antigenic and genetic analysis of the hemagglutinin of approximately 13,000 human influenza A (H3N2) viruses from six continents during 2002-2007 revealed that there was continuous circulation in east and Southeast Asia (E-SE Asia) via a region-wide network of temporally overlapping epidemics and that epidemics in the temperate regions were seeded from this network each year. Seed strains generally first reached Oceania, North America, and Europe, and later South America. This evidence suggests that once A (H3N2) viruses leave E-SE Asia, they are unlikely to contribute to long-term viral evolution. If the trends observed during this period are an accurate representation of overall patterns of spread, then the antigenic characteristics of A (H3N2) viruses outside E-SE Asia may be forecast each year based on surveillance within E-SE Asia, with consequent improvements to vaccine strain selection.

The molecular basis of antigenic drift was determined for the hemagglutinin (HA) of human influenza A/H3N2 virus. From 1968 to 2003, antigenic change was caused mainly by single amino acid substitutions, which occurred at only seven positions in HA immediately adjacent to the receptor binding site. Most of these substitutions were involved in antigenic change more than once. Equivalent positions were responsible for the recent antigenic changes of influenza B and A/H1N1 viruses. Substitution of a single amino acid at one of these positions substantially changed the virus-specific antibody response in infected ferrets. These findings have potentially far-reaching consequences for understanding the evolutionary mechanisms that govern influenza viruses.

Understanding the spatio-temporal patterns of emergence and circulation of new human seasonal influenza virus variants is a key scientific and public health challenge. The global circulation patterns of influenza A/H3N2 viruses are well-characterized1-7 but the patterns of A/H1N1 and B viruses have remained largely unexplored. Here, based on analyses of 9,604 hemagglutinin sequences of human seasonal influenza viruses from 2000–2012, we show that the global circulation patterns of A/H1N1 (up to 2009), B/Victoria, and B/Yamagata viruses differ substantially from those of A/H3N2 viruses. While genetic variants of A/H3N2 viruses did not persist locally between epidemics and were reseeded from East and Southeast (E-SE) Asia, genetic variants of A/H1N1 and B viruses persisted across multiple seasons and exhibited complex global dynamics with E-SE Asia playing a limited role in disseminating new variants. The less frequent global movement of influenza A/H1N1 and B viruses coincided with slower rates of antigenic evolution, lower ages of infection, and smaller less frequent epidemics compared to A/H3N2 viruses. Detailed epidemic models support differences in age of infection, combined with the less frequent travel of children, as likely drivers of the differences in the patterns of global circulation, suggesting a complex interaction between virus evolution, epidemiology and human behavior.

We introduce the antibody landscape, a method for the quantitative analysis of antibody-mediated immunity to antigenically variable pathogens, achieved by accounting for antigenic variation among pathogen strains. We generated antibody landscapes to study immune profiles covering 43 years of influenza A/H3N2 virus evolution for 69 individuals monitored for infection over six years and for 225 individuals pre- and post-vaccination. On infection and vaccination titers increased broadly, including previously encountered viruses far beyond the extent of cross-reactivity observed after a primary infection. We explored implications for vaccination, and found that use of an antigenically advanced virus had the dual benefit of inducing antibodies against both advanced and previous antigenic clusters. These results indicate that pre-emptive vaccine updates may improve influenza vaccine efficacy in previously-exposed individuals.

A complex interplay of viral, host, and ecological factors shapes the spatio-temporal incidence and evolution of human influenza viruses. Although considerable attention has been paid to influenza A viruses, a lack of equivalent data means that an integrated evolutionary and epidemiological framework has until now not been available for influenza B viruses, despite their significant disease burden. Through the analysis of over 900 full genomes from an epidemiological collection of more than 26,000 strains from Australia and New Zealand, we reveal fundamental differences in the phylodynamics of the two co-circulating lineages of influenza B virus (Victoria and Yamagata), showing that their individual dynamics are determined by a complex relationship between virus transmission, age of infection, and receptor binding preference. In sum, this work identifies new factors that are important determinants of influenza B evolution and epidemiology.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05055.001

Influenza A, B and C viruses (IAV, IBV, ICV) circulate globally and infect humans, with IAV/IBV causing most severe disease. While CD8 + T-cells confer cross-protection against different IAV strains, CD8 + T-cell responses to IBV/ICV are understudied. We dissected the CD8 + T-cell cross-reactome against influenza viruses and provided the first evidence of CD8 + T-cell cross-reactivity across IAV, IBV and ICV. Using immunopeptidomics, we identified immunodominant CD8 + T-cell epitopes from IBV, protective in mice, and found prominent memory CD8 + T-cells towards both universal and influenza type-specific epitopes in blood and lungs of healthy humans, with lung-derived CD8 + T-cells displaying a tissue-resident phenotype. Importantly, effector CD38 + Ki67 + CD8 + T-cells against novel epitopes were readily detected in IAV-and IBV-infected pediatric and adult patients. Our study introduces a new paradigm, whereby CD8 + T-cells confer unprecedented cross-reactivity across all influenza viruses, a key finding for designing universal vaccines.

The coronavirus disease pandemic was declared in March 2020, as the southern hemisphere’s winter approached. Australia expected co-circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2, influenza and other seasonal respiratory viruses. However, influenza notifications were 7,029 (March–September) compared with an average 149,832 for the same period in 2015–2109, despite substantial testing. Restrictions on movement within and into Australia may have temporarily eliminated influenza. Other respiratory pathogens also showed remarkably changed activity in 2020.

Following the June-September 2009 wave of 2009 influenza A(H1N1), 13% of the community participants seroconverted, and most of the adult population likely remained susceptible.