Summary Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants with a 382-nucleotide deletion (∆382) in the open reading frame 8 (ORF8) region of the genome have been detected in Singapore and other countries. We investigated the effect of this deletion on the clinical features of infection. Methods We retrospectively identified patients who had been screened for the ∆382 variant and recruited to the PROTECT study—a prospective observational cohort study conducted at seven public hospitals in Singapore. We collected clinical, laboratory, and radiological data from patients' electronic medical records and serial blood and respiratory samples taken during hospitalisation and after discharge. Individuals infected with the ∆382 variant were compared with those infected with wild-type SARS-CoV-2. Exact logistic regression was used to examine the association between the infection groups and the development of hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen (an indicator of severe COVID-19, the primary endpoint). Follow-up for the study's primary endpoint is completed. Findings Between Jan 22 and March 21, 2020, 278 patients with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were screened for the ∆382 deletion and 131 were enrolled onto the study, of whom 92 (70%) were infected with the wild-type virus, ten (8%) had a mix of wild-type and ∆382-variant viruses, and 29 (22%) had only the ∆382 variant. Development of hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen was less frequent in the ∆382 variant group (0 [0%] of 29 patients) than in the wild-type only group (26 [28%] of 92; absolute difference 28% [95% CI 14–28]). After adjusting for age and presence of comorbidities, infection with the ∆382 variant only was associated with lower odds of developing hypoxia requiring supplemental oxygen (adjusted odds ratio 0·07 [95% CI 0·00–0·48]) compared with infection with wild-type virus only. Interpretation The ∆382 variant of SARS-CoV-2 seems to be associated with a milder infection. The observed clinical effects of deletions in ORF8 could have implications for the development of treatments and vaccines. Funding National Medical Research Council Singapore.

To date, limited genetic changes in the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genome have been described. Here, we report a 382-nucleotide (nt) deletion in SARS-CoV-2 that truncates open reading frame 7b (ORF7b) and ORF8, removing the ORF8 transcription regulatory sequence (TRS) and eliminating ORF8 transcription. The earliest 382-nt deletion variant was detected in Singapore on 29 January 2020, with the deletion viruses circulating in the country and accounting for 23.6% (45/191) of SARS-CoV-2 samples screened in this study. SARS-CoV-2 with the same deletion has since been detected in Taiwan, and other ORF7b/8 deletions of various lengths, ranging from 62 nt to 345 nt, have been observed in other geographic locations, including Australia, Bangladesh, and Spain. Mutations or deletions in ORF8 of SARS-CoV have been associated with reduced replicative fitness and virus attenuation. In contrast, the SARS-CoV-2 382-nt deletion viruses showed significantly higher replicative fitness in vitro than the wild type, while no difference was observed in patient viral load, indicating that the deletion variant viruses retained their replicative fitness. A robust antibody response to ORF8 has been observed in SARS-CoV-2 infection, suggesting that the emergence of ORF8 deletions may be due to immune-driven selection and that further deletion variants may emerge during the sustained transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in humans. IMPORTANCE During the SARS epidemic in 2003/2004, a number of deletions were observed in ORF8 of SARS-CoV, and eventually deletion variants became predominant, leading to the hypothesis that ORF8 was an evolutionary hot spot for adaptation of SARS-CoV to humans. However, due to the successful control of the SARS epidemic, the importance of these deletions for the epidemiological fitness of SARS-CoV in humans could not be established. The emergence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 strains with ORF8 deletions, combined with evidence of a robust immune response to ORF8, suggests that the lack of ORF8 may assist with host immune evasion. In addition to providing a key insight into the evolutionary behavior of SARS-CoV-2 as the virus adapts to its new human hosts, the emergence of ORF8 deletion variants may also impact vaccination strategies.

A complex interplay of viral, host, and ecological factors shapes the spatio-temporal incidence and evolution of human influenza viruses. Although considerable attention has been paid to influenza A viruses, a lack of equivalent data means that an integrated evolutionary and epidemiological framework has until now not been available for influenza B viruses, despite their significant disease burden. Through the analysis of over 900 full genomes from an epidemiological collection of more than 26,000 strains from Australia and New Zealand, we reveal fundamental differences in the phylodynamics of the two co-circulating lineages of influenza B virus (Victoria and Yamagata), showing that their individual dynamics are determined by a complex relationship between virus transmission, age of infection, and receptor binding preference. In sum, this work identifies new factors that are important determinants of influenza B evolution and epidemiology.DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.05055.001

Aim Rain forest-restricted plant families show disjunct distributions between the three major tropical regions: South America, Africa and Asia. Explaining these disjunctions has become an important challenge in biogeography. The pantropical plant family Annonaceae is used to test hypotheses that might explain diversification and distribution patterns in tropical biota: the museum hypothesis (low extinction leading to steady accumulation of species); and dispersal between Africa and Asia via Indian rafting versus boreotropical geodispersal.Location Tropics and boreotropics.Methods Molecular age estimates were calculated using a Bayesian approach based on 83% generic sampling representing all major lineages within the family, seven chloroplast markers and two fossil calibrations. An analysis of diversification was carried out, which included lineage-through-time (LTT) plots and the calculation of diversification rates for genera and major clades. Ancestral areas were reconstructed using a maximum likelihood approach that implements the dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis model. ResultsThe LTT plots indicated a constant overall rate of diversification with low extinction rates for the family during the first 80 Ma of its existence. The highest diversification rates were inferred for several young genera such as Desmopsis, Uvariopsis and Unonopsis. A boreotropical migration route was supported over Indian rafting as the best fitting hypothesis to explain present-day distribution patterns within the family.Main conclusions Early diversification within Annonaceae fits the hypothesis of a museum model of tropical diversification, with an overall steady increase in lineages possibly due to low extinction rates. The present-day distribution of species within the two largest clades of Annonaceae is the result of two contrasting biogeographic histories. The 'long-branch clade' has been diversifying since the beginning of the Cenozoic and underwent numerous geodispersals via the boreotropics and several more recent long-distance dispersal events. In contrast, the 'short-branch clade' dispersed once into Asia via the boreotropics during the Early Miocene and further dispersal was limited.