In this article we propose a modified compartmental model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient c 0 and the basic reproduction number R 0. Different scenarios are tested with different values of c 0 , for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium point is correlated with the condition linking R 0 and c 0. A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several rebound in the evolution of the pandemic. It is shown that home containment, if it is strictly respected, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading.
Ce travail porte sur l'étude des caractéristiques hydrologiques de la lagune de Moulay Bousselham (Nord atlantique marocain). Des échantillons d'eau ont été prélevés mensuellement de juillet 2001 à juin 2002, au niveau de 15 stations, réparties sur l'ensemble de la lagune. Les paramètres hydrologiques mesurés (température, salinité, matière en suspension, chlorophylle a) ont montré des variations mensuelles significatives (à p < 0,001), tandis que sur l'ensemble des stations échantillonnées, seule la salinité a montré des variations significatives. L'analyse de la variabilité spatio-temporelle approchée par l'analyse en composantes principales (ACP), combinée à l'analyse discriminante (AD), a dégagé une faible variabilité inter-stations : son pourcentage est de 11 % et de 9 % de la variance totale, respectivement à marée haute et à marée basse.
In this article we propose a modified compartmental (SIR) model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and the home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient $c_0$ and the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$. Different scenarios are tested with different values of $c_0$, for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) point is correlated with the condition linking $\mathcal{R}_0$ and $c_0$. A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several peaks of pandemic. It is shown that the home containment, if lived well, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading.
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