Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 spreading with asymptomatic infected and interacting peoples

Abstract

In this article we propose a modified compartmental (SIR) model describing the transmission of COVID-19 in Morocco. It takes account on the asymptomatic people and the strategies involving hospital isolation of the confirmed infected person, quarantine of people contacting them, and the home containment of all population to restrict mobility. We establish a relationship between the containment control coefficient $c_0$ and the basic reproduction number $\mathcal{R}_0$. Different scenarios are tested with different values of $c_0$, for which the stability of a Disease Free Equilibrium (DFE) point is correlated with the condition linking $\mathcal{R}_0$ and $c_0$. A worst scenario in which the containment is not respected in the same way during the period of confinement leads to several peaks of pandemic. It is shown that the home containment, if lived well, played a crucial role in controlling the disease spreading.

Estimation and optimal control of the multi-scale dynamics of the Covid-19

“…The first group addressed the problem of forecasting the disease in order to help decision makers to better evaluate the logistic challenges they will face [1, 3, 4, 16, 15, 24, 25, 28, 29, 37, 38, 39, 41, 45, 47, 48, 51, 61, 62]. The second category of papers focused on evaluating the effectiveness of mitigations measures prescribed by the WHO and different governments in order to define better fighting strategies [5, 9, 12, 13, 14, 29, 34, 37, 41, 44, 45, 46, 50, 53, 55, 54, 60, 62]. The last set of papers studied the social and the economical impacts of the pandemic [35, 59].…”