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Emotion in everyday risk perception 2 ABSTRACT Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is known about its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-time students were prompted at random -via cellular telephones -to report on mood state and three emotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotionsvalence, arousal, and dominance -were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley & Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explained significant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for variance over and above "reason" (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessed in a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data with simple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided in an Appendix.
Emotion in everyday risk perception 2 ABSTRACT Although research has documented the importance of emotion in risk perception, little is known about its prevalence in everyday life. Using the Experience Sampling Method, 94 part-time students were prompted at random -via cellular telephones -to report on mood state and three emotions and to assess risk on thirty occasions during their working hours. The emotionsvalence, arousal, and dominance -were measured using self-assessment manikins (Bradley & Lang, 1994). Hierarchical linear models (HLM) revealed that mood state and emotions explained significant variance in risk perception. In addition, valence and arousal accounted for variance over and above "reason" (measured by severity and possibility of risks). Six risks were reassessed in a post-experimental session and found to be lower than their real-time counterparts.The study demonstrates the feasibility and value of collecting representative samples of data with simple technology. Evidence for the statistical consistency of the HLM estimates is provided in an Appendix.
Summary
We find evidence of suboptimal decisions leading to underperformance in a policy experiment where two teams of professionals compete in a tournament (National Hockey League shootout) performing a task (penalty shot) sequentially. Before an exogenous policy change, home teams had to perform the task second in the sequence. After the policy change, home teams were given the choice to lead or to follow in the sequence. Home teams should move first only when this is optimal, and this should lead them to winning the tournament more often. We find that after given the choice, home teams most of the time choose to move first in the sequence, and this results in a lower winning frequency for them. Contrary to what economic theory would predict, we find that an expanded choice set can lead to worse outcomes for the agents.
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