All civil engineering structures are deteriorating in time, at a different rate. The current and future states of a structure are associated with various degrees of uncertainty, and, therefore, a probabilistic approach is appropriate in order to predict future needs for maintenance and repair. Some existing models use discrete-time Markov processes called Markov chains. In this paper, homogeneous Markov processes (HMPs) with a finite set of condition states and a continuous parameter (time) are used. The aim is to make a probabilistic forecast of the condition of the structure, using time as a continuous parameter, so that probabilities of condition states can be calculated at each moment. The model is applied to the calculation of probability of possible future deterioration of the piers of Krk bridge (Croatia) that have already been repaired.
Visual inspection in evaluation of bridge condition Given that visual inspection is vital when evaluating the condition of bridges, it plays a crucial role in planning the special maintenance works. At the beginning of 2012, a research was conducted in HAC (Croatian Highways) aiming to standardize evaluation of bridges. The bridge engineers had assessed a certain group of buildings, and their results were afterwards analysed using the mathematical statistics methods. The obtained results showed weaknesses in the existing evaluation system, and the conducted research created a base for improving aides for management, handbooks and procedures for bridge inspection.
The road network in the Republic of Croatia is well developed and largely responds to traffic needs. The motorway network is largely built up and no major new investment is needed in the short term. The national road network is in good standing according to national and EU standards. However, public road management companies face operational and financial challenges in terms of: (a) overinvestment in the network; (b) weak governance; (c) high operating costs; (d) large debt stock; (e) short tenor of existing loans; (f) currency risk and (g) insufficient credit strength to access the loan market for long tenors on a stand-alone basis. The Government of the Republic of Croatia has therefore decided to address these chellenges and launched a project funded by IBRD called the Modernization and Restructuring of the Road Sector (MARS) aiming to enhance operational efficiency and improve the financial sustainability of the road sector. To these ends, the Government has approved a Sector Policy Letter, which contains a set of planned reforms. To ensure the contribution of the road sector to the overall economy, in addition to the financial sustainability of the sector itself, operational improvements are needed in the following key areas: (a) management of the road infrastructure sector; (b) planning, financing and implementation of investments in the road sector; (c) corporate governance and business operations. Much of the reform has already been implemented, but some of the most important are still in the process of being implemented.
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