All civil engineering structures are deteriorating in time, at a different rate. The current and future states of a structure are associated with various degrees of uncertainty, and, therefore, a probabilistic approach is appropriate in order to predict future needs for maintenance and repair. Some existing models use discrete-time Markov processes called Markov chains. In this paper, homogeneous Markov processes (HMPs) with a finite set of condition states and a continuous parameter (time) are used. The aim is to make a probabilistic forecast of the condition of the structure, using time as a continuous parameter, so that probabilities of condition states can be calculated at each moment. The model is applied to the calculation of probability of possible future deterioration of the piers of Krk bridge (Croatia) that have already been repaired.
Visual inspection in evaluation of bridge condition Given that visual inspection is vital when evaluating the condition of bridges, it plays a crucial role in planning the special maintenance works. At the beginning of 2012, a research was conducted in HAC (Croatian Highways) aiming to standardize evaluation of bridges. The bridge engineers had assessed a certain group of buildings, and their results were afterwards analysed using the mathematical statistics methods. The obtained results showed weaknesses in the existing evaluation system, and the conducted research created a base for improving aides for management, handbooks and procedures for bridge inspection.
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