ResumoUm dos principais motivos de falhas de dutos é a corrosão. Diversos métodos têm sido desenvolvidos para a avaliação da pressão interna de falha para dutos corroídos. Entre os métodos analíticos semiempíricos, destacam-se ASME B31G, B31G modificado e RPA. A maioria desses métodos é de natureza determinística, não considerando, portanto, nenhuma incerteza nas variáveis envolvidas, além de considerar apenas configurações de defeitos simplificadas. Foi utilizada a teoria da confiabilidade estrutural, aplicando-se o método FORM (First Order Reliability Method), para se estimar a probabilidade de falha de dutos que apresentam defeitos de corrosão. Foram considerados como varáveis aleatórias, vários parâmetros do duto e da geometria do defeito, tais como diâmetro e espessura do duto, tensão de escoamento do material do duto, comprimento e profundidade do defeito e a pressão do fluido. Foi apresentado um exemplo, utilizando-se todos os métodos, demonstrando a viabilidade desse procedimento. A taxa de corrosão radial foi parâmetro mais importante, para a falha do duto, no longo prazo.
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The first order reliability method (FORM) efficiently performs first order structural reliability analysis, but with limited accuracy. On the other hand, the traditional second order reliability method (SORM) was established to improve the results of FORM, but with a supplementary computational process. Proposed herein, is a new SORM, based on differential geometry making SORM more efficient without hindering accuracy. It can be used to perform the second order structural reliability analysis in engineering. A case in the geotechnical engineering field obtained from literature was solved aiming to demonstrate the ability of the analytical procedure via differential geometry. The advantages of the newly proposed approach whereby the reliability method by differential geometry (SORM DG) over the traditional SORM are discussed. The results show that the SORM DG optimizes the outcomes from FORM and achieves the accuracy of the traditional SORM, more efficiently.
The present article proposes to apply a Risk-Based Maintenance methodology in a gas compression system. This risk calculation is based on a semi-quantitative mathematical model that uses the interdependence of process variables and predictive maintenance data applied in a Condition-Based Maintenance methodology, in order to obtain the calculation of the dynamic risk. This promotes a review of maintenance and reliability strategies proactively in real time. The dynamic risk applied to the system involves the interface of predictive maintenance and process variables with the reliability and risk analyses of the system. This value, which is associated with the financial aspects, safety, people and environment, can be compared to the tolerable risk of production plant operation, providing operation or maintenance decisions. An example demonstrates the integration of process and maintenance data using this model methodology for a gas compression system. This framework can be applied to evaluate the integrity of systems, providing critical risk-based information for the maintenance and operation teams, assisting then in the mitigation of failures in the production systems.
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