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High cost of technology is seen as the primary barrier to full commercialization of cellulosic biofuels. There is broad expectation that once conversion technology breakthroughs occur, policy support is only needed to accelerate cost reductions through "learning by doing" effects. In this study, we show that droughts pose a significant economic risk to biofuel producers and consumers regardless of the rate at which technology costs fall. We model a future switchgrass derived cellulosic biorefinery industry in Kansas based on spatially resolute historic (1996 to 2005) weather data, representing a rainfall regime that could reflect drought events predicted to

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