The aim of the present study was to identify performance indicators able to predict victory in a handball match. A documental research was carried out based on data from 80 matches from the Men's Handball World Championship, held in Qatar in 2015. Data was obtained from the International Handball Federation website. Reliability was determined through intra and inter-observer agreement. Our results show that the combination of attack, defense, and goalkeeper indicators adequately predicted winning a match. Specifically, the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that shots saved by other team's goalkeeper, technical fouls, steals, and own goalkeeper's saves were adequate predictors of team performance. We also analysed the cut-off points of key performance indicators that significantly predict the victory of a match. The study of objective performance indicators and their relationship with team outcome can be useful to trainers as a tool to assess different match features.Key words: handball; match statistics; prediction; performance indicators.
AbstractCorrespondence/correspondencia: Gabriel Daza Institut Nacional d'Educació Física de Catalunya, Universitat de Barcelona. España. Email: gdaza@gencat.cat El objetivo del presente estudio es identificar los indicadores de rendimiento que permiten predecir la victoria en un partido de balonmano. Se llevó a cabo un estudio documental basado en los datos de los 80 partidos del Campeonato Mundial de Balonmano Masculino, celebrado en Qatar en 2015. Los datos fueron recogidos por la Federación Internacional de Balonmano. Se calculó la fiabilidad intra e inter observador. Los resultados muestran que la combinación de indicadores de ataque, defensa y portero predijo adecuadamente ganar un partido. Específicamente, el análisis de regresión logística multivariante mostró que los lanzamientos parados por el portero del otro equipo, las faltas técnicas, los robos y las paradas del propio portero, eran predictores adecuados del rendimiento del equipo. Se establecieron puntos de corte a partir de los cuales aumenta significativamente la probabilidad de ganar el partido. El estudio de los indicadores de desempeño y su relación con los resultados del equipo puede ser una buena herramienta para evaluar diferentes características del juego.Palabras clave: balonmano; estadísticas de partido; predicción; indicadores de rendimiento.
Resumen
In today’s elite handball, coaching staff seek to know as much as possible about all the details of their sport to gain an advantage by adapting their model of play or by looking for the opponent’s weak points. Therefore, the aim of this study was to analyse which variables can influence success in each phase of the match with polar coordinates. Observational methodology was used to analyse success or failure within the nature of handball by means of an ad hoc observation instrument designed and validated for this research. A total of 14 elite men’s handball matches from the 2019–2020 season were analysed. The relationships between success and failure of all behaviours were performed with polar coordinates. The results show that one of the keys to achieving victory in matches is centred on a high level of success in the defensive phase that allows the team to recover the ball and to be able to go on the counterattack to obtain a clear option for a goal. This research allows us to see how we can achieve success in the different phases of the game and improve team performance with these indicators. These results suggest that it is necessary for teams to train at a high pace of play, linking the different phases of the game in order to recover the ball in the defensive phase and attack in the shortest possible time against an unstructured defence to achieve success in the match and the final victory.
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