<p align="justify">В статье рассматриваются результаты исследований структурных особенностей и изменений в экономике на пространстве действующего СЭВ и после его развала на базе рядов ВВП в постоянных ценах. Анализируются последствия дезинтеграции СЭВ и СССР. Для каждого этапа выявлены типы развития стран, построены динамические модели и рассчитаны прогнозы, с высокой точностью предсказавшие кризисные процессы современной экономики и оценки на будущее.
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The article presents a model-level verification of the hypothesis about the impact on foreign trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and Russia made by oil prices in the world market, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russian sanctions. The results of research into the dynamics of foreign trade, its commodity structure, and regional specifics are outlined. An independent result is the experience of using iterative multiple stepwise regression, making it possible to identify a significant set of contributing factors and to estimate their role in inducing changes in the dependent variable. It is shown that the sanctions have not radically affected foreign trade. An impact on some SFD regions has been identified, but for the aggregate trade of the district, no influence from sanctions was revealed.
A strategy for improving export and import of Russian regions requires the identification of macroeconomic factors affecting their foreign trade. According to the scientific principle of deduction (from general to particular), trends observed in highly aggregated objects should be assessed first. Time series for foreign trade of the Siberian Federal District were analysed and compared with those of the Russian Federation, Central Federal District and the city of Moscow. Methods of comparative, structural, expert analysis, statistical estimation and econometric modelling are utilised in the research. The study demonstrates that the separation of profit centres and production sites through legal registration of company head offices (the mechanism called «administrative resource») negatively affects regional exports, as well as other aspects. 2018–2019 ratings of Russian regions in terms of production, volume of operations and gross regional product (GRP) per capita revealed the centre’s monopoly in the mining and manufacturing sectors, causing further centralisation of regional budgetary resources. Application of the method of stepwise regression based on partial correlations demonstrated the significant influence of world oil prices and the weak impact of sanctions for Russian trade. It was statistically confirmed that trade in the Siberian Federal District primarily depends on world metal prices, and then the rouble exchange rate, while the influence of the price of oil, whose export was practically taken out of the region, is quite weak. The proposed combination of profit centres with places of its generation is considered as an effective tool for regional equalisation of the foreign trade effect, aimed at overcoming the socio-economic heterogeneity of regions without involving the federal budget. The obtained results can be used by government bodies and research centres for developing regional strategies.
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