The article presents a model-level verification of the hypothesis about the impact on foreign trade in the regions of the Siberian Federal District (SFD) and Russia made by oil prices in the world market, the ruble exchange rate, and anti-Russian sanctions. The results of research into the dynamics of foreign trade, its commodity structure, and regional specifics are outlined. An independent result is the experience of using iterative multiple stepwise regression, making it possible to identify a significant set of contributing factors and to estimate their role in inducing changes in the dependent variable. It is shown that the sanctions have not radically affected foreign trade. An impact on some SFD regions has been identified, but for the aggregate trade of the district, no influence from sanctions was revealed.
An important part of the analysis of economic growth of regions is the study of the investment distribution within industries and Russian Federation regions. Carefully considered construction of extra value sequences can create positive impulses because of the synergetic effects of investment projects. The purpose of the study is to analyze the synergetic effects of regional investment projects and impulse modeling their effects on Russian economic system. Finding such effects requires complex mathematical models implementation, and usually it cannot describe all existing investment relationships. Cognitive modeling methods can become the solution of stated problem. Cognitive modeling is a combination of mathematical approaches and expert assessments. The following study includes multidimensional factor statistical analysis, which was applied to construct a cognitive map for impulse modeling. Based on investment projects in Russia, there were identified 4 main generalized economic factors. These factors were sets of closely interrelated industries. Complied factors were energy and chemical industry, mining and processing of minerals and mechanical engineering, quality of life, metalworking and woodworking. four main scenarios of investment impulses in the constructed factors were also evaluated. The growth of investment flows in the “quality of life” factor was chosen as the optimality criterion. It was revealed that the development of metal- and wood-processing provides the biggest positive effect. The conducted research shows the importance of investment synergy studying and describes a methodological approach to perform calculations.
scite is a Brooklyn-based organization that helps researchers better discover and understand research articles through Smart Citations–citations that display the context of the citation and describe whether the article provides supporting or contrasting evidence. scite is used by students and researchers from around the world and is funded in part by the National Science Foundation and the National Institute on Drug Abuse of the National Institutes of Health.