[1] Continental freshwater transports and loads excess nutrients and pollutants from various land surface sources into downstream inland and coastal water environments. This study shows that even small, hydrologically unmonitored near-coastal catchment areas may generate large nutrient and pollutant mass loading to the sea of a magnitude similar to or greater than monitored river loads. Systematic near-coastal gaps in the monitoring of freshwater discharges to the sea may therefore mislead the quantification of coastal mass loading significantly. A methodology is presented for quantifying the mass load contributions of all the different unmonitored pathways of hydrological mass transport to the coast, including unmonitored river parts, whole unmonitored streams, and submarine groundwater discharge. This can be used for guiding future efforts to improve monitoring so that it includes the essential hydrological pathways of nutrient and pollutant loading to the sea.

Norrström catchment, west of Stockholm, covers most of the Mälaren valley. Provision of drinking water from Lake Mälaren is an absolute precondition for continued growth in the region. Stockholm County's population is expected to increase by 600,000 people before 2030. Current climate change predictions anticipate significant temperature and precipitation increases. We implement the PolFlow model embedded in PCRaster for quantifying water and substances fluxes on the catchment scale over a 30-year time horizon. We formulate scenarios for changes in water quality and quantity due to climate change and population development. Results indicate a mild impact from climate change on surface flow rates but substantial effects on sub-surface residence times. Population development slightly affects nutrients loads. Using source apportionment and sensitivity analysis, we identify a number of critical parameters/processes to be further studied, in order for future results to be more reliable and usable in a water resources management context.

We present an updated, harmonized hydrologic base map of the entire Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB), including 634 subdrainage basins. The updated map has a level of detail approximately 5 to 10 times higher than the current standard and includes various spatial-aggregation possibilities of relevance for water management. All 634 subdrainage basins and their various spatial aggregations are characterized in terms of population, land cover, drainage density, and slope. We identify, quantify, and characterize, in particular, drainage basins that are unmonitored with regard to the combination of water-flow and nutrient-concentration measurements needed to monitor coastal nutrient and pollutant loading. Results indicate that out of a total BSDB population of 84 239 000 in 2002, 24% lived in unmonitored coastal drainage basins that cover 13% of the total BSDB area. A more detailed analysis of Swedish catchments indicates that Sweden has a particularly large proportion of unmonitored coastal catchment areas (20% of the total Swedish area) with high population pressures (55% of the total Swedish population), when compared with average conditions for the whole BSDB. In general, the investigated characteristics of unmonitored coastal basins vary and differ largely from those in adjacent monitored drainage basins within the BSDB.

We have used a total of 496 sample sites to calibrate a simple regression model for calculating dissolved inorganic nutrient fluxes via runoff to the ocean. The regression uses the logarithms of runoff and human population as the independent variables and estimates the logarithms of dissolved inorganic nitrogen and phosphorus loading with R 2 values near 0.8. This predictive capability is about the same as has been derived for total nutrient loading with processbased models requiring more detailed information on independent variables. We conclude that population and runoff are robust proxies for the more detailed application, landscape modification, and in-stream processing estimated by more process-based models.The regression model has then been applied to a demonstration data set of 1353 river catchments draining to the sea from the North American continent south of the Canadian border. The geographic extents of these basins were extracted from a 1-km digital elevation model for North America, and both runoff and population were estimated for each basin. Most of the basins (72% of the total) are smaller than 10 3 km 2 , and both runoff and population density are higher and more variable among small basins than among larger ones.While total load to the ocean can probably be adequately estimated from large systems only, analysis of the geographic distribution of nutrient loading requires consideration of the small basins, which can exhibit significant hydrologic and demographic heterogeneity between systems over their range even within the same geographic region. High-resolution regional and local analysis is necessary for environmental assessment and management.

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