Spatial Characterization of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and Its Unmonitored Catchments

Hannerz, Fredrik; Destouni, Georgia

doi:10.1579/05-a-022r.1

Cited by 58 publications

(51 citation statements)

References 10 publications

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“…In contrast to this need, we found here that the supply of such time series is declining and mostly so in basins where the greatest temperature, and in particular, precipitation changes, are expected. Analogous biases in hydrological monitoring have also been reported for other parts of the world, in studies showing gaps prevailing most in the hotspots of greatest population and other water pollution pressures (Hannerz and Destouni 2006;Destouni et al 2008). Such results converge with the present in indicating an increasing need to identify and prioritize relevant hydrological monitoring for observing climate and environmental change in the Arctic and worldwide.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 70%

Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Bring

Destouni

2010

AMBIO

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Rapid changes to the Arctic hydrological cycle challenge both our process understanding and our ability to find appropriate adaptation strategies. We have investigated the relevance and accuracy development of climate change projections for assessment of water cycle changes in major Arctic drainage basins. Results show relatively good agreement of climate model projections with observed temperature changes, but high model inaccuracy relative to available observation data for precipitation changes. Direct observations further show systematically larger (smaller) runoff than precipitation increases (decreases). This result is partly attributable to uncertainties and systematic bias in precipitation observations, but still indicates that some of the observed increase in Arctic river runoff is due to water storage changes, for example melting permafrost and/or groundwater storage changes, within the drainage basins. Such causes of runoff change affect sea level, in addition to ocean salinity, and inland water resources, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Process-based hydrological modeling and observations, which can resolve changes in evapotranspiration, and groundwater and permafrost storage at and below river basin scales, are needed in order to accurately interpret and translate climate-driven precipitation changes to changes in freshwater cycling and runoff. In contrast to this need, our results show that the density of Arctic runoff monitoring has become increasingly biased and less relevant by decreasing most and being lowest in river basins with the largest expected climatic changes.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 70%

Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Bring

Destouni

2010

AMBIO

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“…Further, considering nutrient fluxes from catchments, the inconsistencies on national load and source-oriented approaches to estimating nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea may lead to serious misinterpretations and development of inadequate management strategies (Mörth et al 2007). To allow for comparison and application across such large geographical and geopolitical regions like the BSDB, models and prediction frameworks need to draw upon consistent data (Hannerz and Destouni 2006). Consistency between data and modeling frameworks is, thus, a necessity.…”

Section: Discussion and Concluding Remarksmentioning

confidence: 99%

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Hägg

Lyon

Wällstedt

et al. 2013

AMBIO

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Dynamic model simulations of the future climate and projections of future lifestyles within the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin (BSDB) were considered in this study to estimate potential trends in future nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea. Total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads were estimated using a simple proxy based only on human population (to account for nutrient sources) and stream discharges (to account for nutrient transport). This population-discharge proxy provided a good estimate for nutrient loads across the seven sub-basins of the BSDB considered. All climate scenarios considered here produced increased nutrient loads to the Baltic Sea over the next 100 years. There was variation between the climate scenarios such that sub-basin and regional differences were seen in future nutrient runoff depending on the climate model and scenario considered. Regardless, the results of this study indicate that changes in lifestyle brought about through shifts in consumption and population potentially overshadow the climate effects on future nutrient runoff for the entire BSDB. Regionally, however, lifestyle changes appear relatively more important in the southern regions of the BSDB while climatic changes appear more important in the northern regions with regards to future increases in nutrient loads. From a whole-ecosystem management perspective of the BSDB, this implies that implementation of improved and targeted management practices can still bring about improved conditions in the Baltic Sea in the face of a warmer and wetter future climate.

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“…The most significant coastal point sources are major cities such as St. Petersburg, Helsinki and Stockholm (HELCOM, 2004). The largest mass fluxes of nutrients come from the rivers Oder and Vistula, draining Poland and its 38 million inhabitants, about half of the population of the entire Baltic Sea catchment (Hannerz et al, 2006).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives

Humborg

Mörth

Sundbom

et al. 2007

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. The paper reviews critical processes for the landsea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage treatment, agricultural practices and increased hydropower demand (for N, P and Si) and of global warming, i.e., changes in hydrological patterns (for C). These most significant drivers will not only change the total amount of nutrient inputs and fluxes of organic and inorganic forms of carbon to the Baltic Sea, their ratio (C:N:P:Si) will alter as well with consequences for phytoplankton species composition in the Baltic Sea. In summary, we propose that N fluxes may increase due to higher livestock densities in those countries recently acceded to the EU, whereas P and Si fluxes may decrease due to an improved sewage treatment in these new EU member states and with further damming and still eutrophic states of many lakes in the entire Baltic Sea catchment. This might eventually decrease cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic but increase the potential for other nuisance blooms. Dinoflagellates could eventually substitute diatoms that even today grow below their optimal growth conditions due to low Si concentrations in some regions of the Baltic Sea. C fluxes will probably increase from the boreal part of the Baltic Sea catchment due to the expected higher temperatures and heavier rainfall. However, it is not clear whether dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity, which have opposite feedbacks to global warming, will increase in similar amounts, because the spring flow peak will be smoothed out in time due to higher temperatures that cause less snow cover and deeper soil infiltration.

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Spatial Characterization of the Baltic Sea Drainage Basin and Its Unmonitored Catchments

Cited by 58 publications

References 10 publications

Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Relevance of Hydro-Climatic Change Projection and Monitoring for Assessment of Water Cycle Changes in the Arctic

Future Nutrient Load Scenarios for the Baltic Sea Due to Climate and Lifestyle Changes

Riverine transport of biogenic elements to the Baltic Sea – past and possible future perspectives

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