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BackgroundIn Brazil, case-fatality rates attributable to visceral leishmaniasis (VL) are high and knowledge of the risk factors associated with death may help reduce mortality. The aim of this study was to construct and validate a scoring system for prognosis of death from VL by using all cases reported in Brazil from 2007 to 2011.MethodologyIn this historical cohort study, 18,501 VL cases were analyzed; of these, 17,345 cases were cured and 1,156 cases caused death. The database was divided into two series: primary (two-thirds of cases), to develop the model score, and secondary (one-third of cases), to validate the scoring system. Multivariate logistic regression models were performed to identify factors associated with death from VL, and these were included in the scoring system.Principal FindingsThe factors associated with death from VL were: bleeding (score 3); splenomegaly (score 1); edema (score 1); weakness (score 1); jaundice (score 1); Leishmania–HIV co-infection (score 1); bacterial infection (score 1); and age (≤0.5 years [score 5]; >0.5 and ≤1 [score 2]; >19 and ≤50 [score 2]; >50 and <65 [score 3]; ≥65 [score 5]). It was observed that patients with a score of 4 had a probability of death of approximately 4.5% and had a worse prognosis. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of this score were 89.4, 51.2, and 53.5, respectively.Conclusions/SignificanceThe scoring system based on risk factors for death showed good performance in identifying patients with signs of severity at the time of clinical suspicion of VL and can contribute to improving the surveillance system for reducing case fatalities. The classification of patients according to their prognosis for death may assist decision-making regarding the transfer of the patients to hospitals more capable of handling their condition, admission to the intensive care unit, and adequate support and specific treatment.

The outcomes of HIV-infected patients requiring critical care have improved. However, in developing countries, information about HIV-infected patients admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) is scarce. We describe the prognosis of HIV-infected patients admitted to a Brazilian ICU and the factors predictive of short- and long-term survival. A historical cohort study, including HIV-infected patients admitted to a Brazilian ICU at an HIV/AIDS reference hospital, was conducted. Survivors were followed up for 24 months after ICU discharge. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data, disease severity scores and mortality were evaluated. Data were analysed using survival and regression models. One hundred and twenty-five patients were studied. In-ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 46.4% and 68.0%, respectively. Multivariate analysis showed that the in-ICU mortality was significantly associated with APACHE (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation) II scores (odds ratio [OR], 1.11; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.11), mechanical ventilation (OR, 6.39; 95% CI, 1.29-31.76), tuberculosis treatment (OR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.03-6.71), use of antiretroviral therapy (OR, 0.19; 95% CI, 0.05-0.77) and septic shock (OR, 4.38; 95% CI, 1.78-10.76). Septic shock was also associated with long-term survival (hazard ratio, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.31-6.90). In-hospital and in-ICU mortality were higher than those reported for developed countries. ICU admission mostly due to AIDS-related diseases may explain these differences.

The purpose of our study was to describe the clinical profile of dengue-infected patients admitted to Brazilian intensive care units (ICU) and evaluate factors associated with death. A longitudinal, multicenter case series study was conducted with laboratory-confirmed dengue patients admitted to nine Brazilian ICUs situated in Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil from January 1, 2008, to December 31, 2013. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data; disease severity scores; and mortality were evaluated. A total of 97 patients were studied. The in-ICU and in-hospital mortality rates were 18.6% and 19.6%, respectively. Patients classified as having severe dengue according to current World Health Organization classifications showed an increased risk of death in a univariate analysis. Nonsurvivors were older, exhibited lower serum albumin concentrations and higher total leukocyte counts and serum creatinine levels. Other risk factors (vomiting, lethargy/restlessness, dyspnea/respiratory distress) were also associated with death in a univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis indicated that in-hospital mortality was significantly associated with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score. The ICU and in-hospital mortality observed in this study were higher than values reported in similar studies. An increased frequency of ICU admission due to severe organ dysfunction, higher severity indices and scarcity of ICU beds may partially explain the higher mortality.

ABSTRACT:Objective: To describe the main metrics on dengue generated by Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2015, for Brazil and its 27 federated units, in the years 2000 and 2015. Methods: The metrics described were: incidence and mortality rates by dengue, standardized by age, years of life lost (YLL), years lived with disability (YLD), and disability-adjusted life years (DALY) (in absolute frequency and age-standardized rates). The estimated metrics were presented with uncertainty intervals (UI 95%) for the years 2000 and 2015, accompanied by the relative percentages of changes. Results: The number of cases increased 232.7% and the number of deaths increased 639.0% between 2000 and 2015 in the country. The incidence rate varied 184.3% and the mortality rate was low, but with an increase of 500.0% in the period evaluated. The YLL, YLD, and DALY rates increased 420.0, 187.2, and 266.1%, respectively. In 2015, DALY was similar among women and men (21.9/100,000). The DALY increased more than double in all the Brazilian federated units. Conclusion:The marked increase in dengue over the years is associated with the introduction and/or circulation of one or more serotypes of the transmitter virus and an increasing proportion of patients affected by the severe form of the disease. Despite the low mortality rate of the disease in comparison between the years of study, the disease contributes to the loss of healthy years of life in Brazil as it affects a large number of people, from all age groups, causing some degree of disability during the infection and deaths, especially, in children.

Overall, the POC-CCA urine assay proved to be a useful test for diagnosing S. mansoni in a low-endemic area in Brazil. Severe clinical forms of schistosomiasis can be present even in such low-endemic areas.

Abstractobjectives To analyse the clinical and epidemiological profiles of dengue haemorrhagic fever (DHF), dengue shock syndrome (DSS) and complicated dengue cases and deaths from 2008 to 2010 that occurred in the state of Minas Gerais, south-eastern Brazil, and to identify factors associated with death from dengue.methods Historical cohort study using data from the Brazilian Information System for Notifiable Diseases. A descriptive analysis of the DHF, DSS and complicated dengue cases and deaths was performed; the incidence, mortality and case-fatality rates were estimated. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify factors associated with death from dengue. Comorbidities were not included in the analysis because the information system does not contain such data. conclusions The results support the importance of plasma leakage as a warning sign associated with death from dengue as well as the signs and symptoms that allow the diagnosis of DHF. Moreover, our findings suggest that increased attention is necessary for individuals over 65 years of age and in municipalities with populations under 100 000 inhabitants to ensure a better quality of care during the management of severe patients of dengue in these locations. Differences in the interpretation of the DHF definition have hindered the comparison of data from different countries; it can improve from the WHO 2009 dengue classification.keywords dengue fever, dengue haemorrhagic fever, dengue shock syndrome, plasma leakage, factors associated with death, case-fatality rate, Brazil

Case-fatality rates were higher than that observed among patients with VL treated with other therapies. Identification of prognostic factors of death from VL may allow early diagnosis of patients prone to such outcome and prompt an expeditious and appropriate management of VL to reduce fatality rates.