Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen:Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden.Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen.Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. Abstract: Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel, oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014. This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the sources of the recent decline in prices, and examines its macroeconomic, financial and policy implications. The recent drop in prices is a significant, but not an unprecedented event as it has some significant parallels with the price collapse in 1985-86. The recent decline has been driven by a number of factors: several years of upward surprises in the production of unconventional oil; weakening global demand; a significant shift in OPEC policy; unwinding of some geopolitical risks; and an appreciation of the U.S. dollar. Although the relative importance of each factor is difficult to pin down, OPEC's renouncement of price support and rapid expansion of oil supply from unconventional sources appear to have played a crucial role since mid-2014. The oil price drop will lead to substantial income shifts from oil exporters to oil importers resulting in a net positive effect for global activity over the medium term. Although several factors could counteract its impact on global growth and inflation, the drop in oil prices will pose significant challenges for monetary, fiscal, and structural policies. JEL Classification Numbers: Q40, Q41, Q43, F40, E32, E62. Terms of use: Documents in
Each worker brings a bundle of skills to the workplace, for example, quantitative and communication skills. Since employers must take this bundle as a package deal, they choose workers with just the right mix of skills. We show that international differences in the distribution of worker skill bundles-for example, Japan's abundance of workers with a modest mix of both quantitative and teamwork skills-have important implications for international trade, industrial structure, and domestic income distribution. Formally, we model two-dimensional worker heterogeneity and show that the second moments of the distribution of skills are critical, as in the Roy model. (c) 2007 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved..
Some rights reserved 1234 24232221This work is a product of the staff of The Wotld Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility fot any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the infotmation, or liability with tespect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries.Nothing herein shall constitute ot be construed or considered to be a limitation upon ot waiver of the privileges and immunities of The World Bank, all of which are specifically reserved.
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