Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies

Ha, Jongrim; Kose, Ayhan; Ohnsorge, Franziska

doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1375-7

Cited by 102 publications

(104 citation statements)

References 0 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…At the expense of a shorter sample, I provide evidence for a large number of countries. This choice is in line with recent arguments by Ha et al (2019) and Parker (2018) , who claim that the use of a comprehensive database allows to approximate global inflation more precisely. The countries entering the sample are listed and categorized into respective groups in Table S1 (in the Supplementary Material, available on-line) .…”

Section: Datasupporting

confidence: 72%

“…Drawing from the earlier frameworks provided by Neely and Rapach (2011) as well as Förster and Tillmann (2014) , Parker (2018) claims that the explanatory power of global inflation becomes much less pronounced once the sample accounts for middle and low-income economies. Further evidence provided by Ha et al (2019) corroborates this view. The authors show that although the contribution of the global inflation factor accounts for more variation in inflation rates in 2001–2017 than over 1970–2000, the impact of the global component on domestic consumer prices is still much more considerable in the median advanced economy than in the emerging or low-income ones.…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Most studies on global inflation apply rather homogeneous, advanced-economy, low-frequency samples, which may result in obtaining relatively high estimates of the global component's contribution to the developments in domestic consumer prices. Recent works by Parker (2018) and Ha et al (2019) on extensive datasets provide contrasting evidence with respect to the established consensus view on the global dimension of inflation. Drawing from the earlier frameworks provided by Neely and Rapach (2011) as well as Förster and Tillmann (2014) , Parker (2018) claims that the explanatory power of global inflation becomes much less pronounced once the sample accounts for middle and low-income economies.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…A considerable body of empirical literature employs variants of dynamic factor models to measure the contribution of the global, regional and idiosyncratic components to the overall variability in domestic inflation (e.g. Ha et al, 2019 ; Parker, 2018 ; Auer et al, 2019 ; Förster and Tillmann, 2014 ; Mumtaz and Surico, 2012 ; Mumtaz et al, 2011 ; Neely and Rapach, 2011 ; Ciccarelli and Mojon, 2010 ; Monacelli and Sala, 2009 ). With the exception of the study by Förster and Tillmann (2014) providing little support for the hypothesis of global inflation, the evidence put forward in most of these studies suggests that the common component contributes heavily to the overall variation in domestic inflation rates, at least in industrialized countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The authors show that although the contribution of the global inflation factor accounts for more variation in inflation rates in 2001–2017 than over 1970–2000, the impact of the global component on domestic consumer prices is still much more considerable in the median advanced economy than in the emerging or low-income ones. Nonetheless, according to Ha et al (2019) inflation co-movements have recently strengthened and have become more broad-based and sizeable across different inflation measures. Finally, while most studies are conducted on either quarterly or annual data displaying relatively less variation, Altansukh et al (2017) study inflation co-movements on monthly inflation data, though on a limited dataset of OECD countries.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization

Szafranek

2021

Economic Modelling

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Most studies on global inflation are conducted on homogeneous, advanced-economy, low-frequency samples and present evidence favouring the global inflation paradigm. I challenge this consensus view by quantifying price co-movements across a large, heterogeneous sample of countries, while accounting for volatility clustering in monthly inflation data. Estimation results broadly validate the global dimension of inflation but reveal that the strength of the link between global and domestic inflation is time-varying. Price co-movements have continued to be strongest for advanced economies and have increased considerably in emerging economies in recent years. However, they have remained feeble for low-income countries in the last two decades. Inflation synchronization tends to increase due to oil price shocks affecting most economies in a similar way, global economic expansions or recessions spilling over across economies and owing to more coordinated monetary policy of major central banks. Thus, marked price co-movements indicate the prevalence of common factors affecting inflation across countries.

show abstract

Section: Datasupporting

confidence: 72%

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization

Szafranek

2021

Economic Modelling

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Forecasting food price inflation during global crises

Toledo,

Duncan

2024

Journal of Forecasting

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper, we consider the forecasting of domestic food price inflation (DFPI) using global indicators, with emphasis on episodes of macroeconomic turbulence, namely, the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and the COVID‐19 pandemic and its subsequent repercussions. Our monthly dataset covers about two decades for more than a hundred economies. We employ dynamic model averaging (DMA) to tackle both model uncertainty and parameter instability and produce pseudo out‐of‐sample forecasts. Thus, we are able to focus on the forecasting ability of the global predictors of DFPI before and during the global crises. We find evidence that the DMA specification tends to outperform statistical models frequently used in the literature such as random walks, autoregressive models, and time‐varying parameter models, especially during global crises. We also identify the most successful predictors during the crises using their posterior probabilities of inclusion. By comparing the distributions of such probabilities, we find that the international food price inflation is the most useful predictor of DFPI for numerous countries during both crises. Other indicators such as domestic CPI inflation as well as the international inflation of agricultural commodities, fertilizers, and other food categories improved their forecasting ability, particularly during the COVID‐19 period.

show abstract

Economic and demographic determinants of premium reserve in Western Balkan countries during and after the crisis

Burić

Kašćelan

2021

Int. J Fin Econ

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article aims at investigating the impact of economic and demographic factors on premium reserve and thus the possibility for life insurers to invest in the financial market of Western Balkan countries. Using the data panel including economic and demographic trends in the countries of this region in the period from year 2006 to 2016, it is determined that price stability and higher deposit rates may cause faster development of insurance market. Contrary to previous findings, which indicate wages and population ageing as key driving factors in developed countries, in this region these are the youth dependency and care for their schooling. This indicates that a higher significance is given to the component of insurance of death risk than the savings one. However, during crisis period, more than post‐crisis period, higher demand for this type of savings was determined due to the decline in confidence in banking sector.

show abstract

Inflation in Emerging and Developing Economies: Evolution, Drivers, and Policies

Cited by 102 publications

References 0 publications

Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization

Evidence on time-varying inflation synchronization

Forecasting food price inflation during global crises

Economic and demographic determinants of premium reserve in Western Balkan countries during and after the crisis

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About