The current state-of-the-art in flood damage analysis mainly focuses on the economic evaluation of tangible flood effects. It is contended in this discussion paper that important economic, social and ecological aspects of flood-related vulnerabilities are neglected. It is a challenge for flood research to develop a wider perspective for flood damage evaluation.
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Multicriteria analysis under uncertainty with
IANUS -method and empirical results
Bernd Klauer, Martin Drechsler, Frank Messner
SummaryIANUS is a method for aiding public decision-making that supports efforts towards sustainable development and has a wide range of application. IANUS stands for 'Integrated Assessment of Decisions uNder Uncertainty for Sustainable Development'. This paper introduces the main features of IANUS and illustrates the method using the results of a case study in the Torgau region (eastern Germany). IANUS structures the decision process into four steps: scenario derivation, criteria selection, modeling, evaluation. Its overall aim is to extract the information needed for a sound, responsible decision in a clear, transparent manner. The method is designed for use in conflict situations where environmental and socioeconomic effects need to be considered and so an interdisciplinary approach is required.Special emphasis is placed on a broad perception and consideration of uncertainty. Three types of uncertainty are explicitly taken into account by IANUS: development uncertainty (uncertainty about the social, economic and other developments that affect the consequences of decision), model uncertainty (uncertainty associated with the prediction of the effects of decisions), and weight uncertainty (uncertainty about the appropriate weighting of the criteria).The backbone of IANUS is a multicriteria method with the ability to process uncertain information. In the case study the multicriteria method PROMETHEE is used. Since PROMETHEE in its basic versions is not able to process uncertain information an extension of this method is developed here and described in detail.
This paper reports a contingent valuation study to value the economic benefits of a post-mining lake-district in East Germany. Lusatia Region faces serious water scarcity problems as the closure of mining pits in 1990 led to the termination of groundwater discharge into rivers. The water conflict centres around traditional water users whose water demand is no longer met and the rehabilitation of mining pits in form of a new lake-district. Current water allocation policy for the Elbe catchment places lowest priority on filling mining pits with river water, even though freshwater is essential for good lake water quality. Commissioned by the government, this study aims to determine the non-market benefits that would be generated by good water quality in the lake-district in order to re-assess the distribution of water among all water users in the Elbe catchment. Our findings show that the annual non-market benefits of the lake-district is significant and lies between 10.4 and 16.2 million euros. Apart from recreational benefits, people also obtain non-use values for the lake-district. Furthermore, two challenges for CV became apparent: fuzzy future benefits (potential improvement to the regional economy) significantly influenced WTP estimates, and WTP stated by users interviewed on site and at home varied significantly.
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