Extreme river floods have been a substantial natural hazard in Europe over the past centuries, and radiative effects of recent anthropogenic changes in atmospheric composition are expected to cause climate changes, especially enhancement of the hydrological cycle, leading to an increased flood risk. For the past few decades, however, observations from Europe do not show a clear increase in flood occurrence rate. Here we present longer-term records of winter and summer floods in two of the largest rivers in central Europe, the Elbe and Oder rivers. For the past 80 to 150 yr, we find a decrease in winter flood occurrence in both rivers, while summer floods show no trend, consistent with trends in extreme precipitation occurrence. The reduction in winter flood occurrence can partly be attributed to fewer events of strong freezing-following such events, breaking river ice at the end of the winter may function as a water barrier and enhance floods severely. Additionally, we detect significant long-term changes in flood occurrence rates in the sixteenth to nineteenth centuries, and conclude that reductions in river length, construction of reservoirs and deforestation have had minor effects on flood frequency.

Anthropogenically induced climate change has been hypothesized to add to the risk of extreme river floods because a warmer atmosphere can carry more water. In the case of the central European rivers Elbe and Oder, another possibility that has been considered is a more frequent occurrence of a weather situation of the type “Zugstrasse Vb,” where a low‐pressure system travels from the Adriatic region northeastward, carrying moist air and bringing orographic rainfall in the mountainous catchment areas (Erzgebirge, Sudeten, and Beskids). Analysis of long, homogeneous records of past floods allows us to test such ideas. M. Mudelsee and co‐workers recently presented flood records for the middle parts of the Elbe and Oder, which go continuously back to A.D. 1021 and A.D. 1269, respectively. Here we review the reconstruction and assess the data quality of the records, which are based on combining documentary data from the interval up to 1850 and measurements thereafter, finding both the Elbe and Oder records to provide reliable information on heavy floods at least since A.D. 1500. We explain that the statistical method of kernel occurrence rate estimation can overcome deficiencies of techniques previously used to investigate trends in the occurrence of climatic extremes, because it (1) allows nonmonotonic trends, (2) imposes no parametric restrictions, and (3) provides confidence bands, which are essential for evaluating whether observed trends are real or came by chance into the data. We further give a hypothesis test that can be used to evaluate monotonic trends. On the basis of these data and methods, we find for both the Elbe and Oder rivers (1) significant downward trends in winter flood risk during the twentieth century, (2) no significant trends in summer flood risk in the twentieth century, and (3) significant variations in flood risk during past centuries, with notable differences between the Elbe and Oder. The observed trends are shown to be both robust against data uncertainties and only slightly sensitive to land use changes or river engineering, lending support for climatic influences on flood occurrence rate. In the case of winter floods, regional warming during the twentieth century has likely reduced winter flood risk via a reduced rate of strong river freezing (breaking ice at the end of winter may function as a water barrier and enhance a high water stage severely). In the case of summer floods, correlation analysis shows a significant, but weak, relation between flood occurrence and meridional airflow, compatible with a “Zugstrasse Vb” weather situation. The weakness of this relation, together with the uncertainty about whether this weather situation became more frequent, explains the absence of trends in summer flood risk for the Elbe and Oder in the twentieth century. We finally draw conclusions about flood disaster management and modeling of flood occurrence under a changed climate.

The heat waves of 2003 in Western Europe and 2010 in Russia, commonly labelled as rare climatic anomalies outside of previous experience, are often taken as harbingers of more frequent extremes in the global warming-influenced future. However, a recent

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Büntgen et al. (2015; hereinafter B15) present the result of new research which question the results of Wetter et al. 2014, ( hereinafter W14) and Wetter et al. (2013, hereinafter W13) regarding European climate in 1540. B15 conclude from tree-ring evidence that the results based on documentary data of W14 Bprobably overstated the intensity and duration of the 1540

Ecosystems are characterized as complex systems with abiotic and biotic processes interacting between the various components that have evolved over long‐term periods. Most ecosystem studies so far have been carried out in mature systems. Only limited knowledge exists on the very initial phase of ecosystem development. Concepts on the development of ecosystems are often based on assumptions and extrapolations with respect to structure–process interactions in the initial stage. To characterize the effect of this initial phase on structure and functioning of ecosystems in later stages, it is necessary to disentangle the close interaction of spatial and temporal patterns of ecosystem structural assemblages with processes of ecosystem development. The study of initial, less complex systems could help to better identify and characterize coupled patterns and processes. This paper gives an overview of concepts for the initial development of different ecosystem compartments and identifies open questions and research gaps. The artificial catchment site “Chicken Creek” is introduced as a new research approach to investigate these patterns and processes of initial ecosystem development under defined boundary conditions. This approach allows to integrate the relevant processes with related pattern and structure development over temporal and spatial scales and to derive thresholds and stages in state and functioning of ecosystems at the catchment level.

Climate change impact assessments form the basis for the development of suitable climate change adaptation strategies. For this purpose, ensembles consisting of stepwise coupled models are generally used [emission scenario → global circulation model → downscaling approach (DA) → bias correction → impact model (hydrological model)], in which every item is affected by considerable uncertainty. The aim of the current study is (1) to analyse the uncertainty related to the choice of the DA as well as the hydrological model and its parameterization and (2) to evaluate the vulnerability of the studied catchment, a subcatchment of the highly anthropogenically impacted Spree River catchment, to hydrological change. Four different DAs are used to drive four different model configurations of two conceptually different hydrological models (Water Balance Simulation Model developed at ETH Zürich and HBV-light). In total, 452 simulations are carried out. The results show that all simulations compute an increase in air temperature and potential evapotranspiration. For precipitation, runoff and actual evapotranspiration, opposing trends are computed depending on the DA used to drive the hydrological models. Overall, the largest source of uncertainty can be attributed to the choice of the DA, especially regarding whether it is statistical or dynamical. The choice of the hydrological model and its parameterization is of less importance when long-term mean annual changes are compared. The large bandwidth at the end of the modelling chain may exacerbate the formulation of suitable climate change adaption strategies on the regional scale. Figure 6. Frequency plot for daily (top, precipitation > 10 mm/day not displayed) and monthly (bottom) precipitation for the reference period (CCLM: COSMO model in climate mode; REMO: regional model; WettReg: weather-type regionalization method) 3990A. GÄDEKE ET AL. Figure 8. Comparison between the interannual course of measured and simulated (reference 1963-1992 and scenario period 2031-2060) temperatures for the Weißer Schöps River catchment (interpolation by the inverse distance method) (CCLM: COSMO model in climate mode; REMO: regional model; STAR: Statistical Regional model; WettReg: weather-type regionalization method) 3992 A. GÄDEKE ET AL.