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If efforts to tackle biodiversity loss and its impact on human wellbeing are to be successful, conservation must learn from other fields which use predictive methods to foresee shocks and preempt their impacts in the face of uncertainty, such as military studies, public health and finance. Despite a long history of using predictive models to understand the dynamics of ecological systems and human disturbance, conservationists do not systematically apply predictive approaches when designing and implementing behavioural interventions. This is an important omission because human behaviour is the underlying cause of current widespread biodiversity loss. Here, we critically assess how predictive approaches can transform the way conservation scientists and practitioners plan for and implement social and behavioural change among people living with wildlife. Our manifesto for predictive conservation recognises that social-ecological systems are dynamic, uncertain and complex, and calls on conservationists to embrace the forward-thinking approach which effective conservation requires.

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A season-long assessment of acute pesticide poisoning among farmers was conducted in three villages in India. Fifty female cotton growers reported the adverse effects experienced after exposures to pesticides by themselves and by their male relatives (n=47). The study documented the serious consequences of pesticide use for the health of farmers, particularly women field helpers. Typically female tasks such as mixing concentrated chemicals and refilling spraying tanks were as hazardous as direct pesticide application. Of 323 reported events, 83.6% were associated with signs and symptoms of mild to severe poisoning, and 10% of the pesticide application sessions were associated with three or more neurotoxic/systemic signs and symptoms typical of poisoning by organophosphates, which were used in 47% of the applications. Although in 6% of the spray sessions the workers' neurotoxic effects were extremely serious, none sought medical care. Low-income marginal farmers were more often subjected to severe poisoning than were landlords.

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SUMMARYFarmer field schools (FFSs) were conducted in southern India to reduce pesticide input and enhance sustainability of cotton production systems. This study was carried out to determine the additional benefits of FFSs in the social and economic arena, using the sustainable livelihoods (SL) concept to frame the evaluation. Farmers who had participated in the integrated pest management (IPM) FFSs perceived a range of impacts much beyond the adoption of IPM practices. The reduced cost of cultivation allowed for financial recovery from debt and the building of physical assets. IPMFFS households and production systems were perceived by the participants to have become more economically resilient than Non-IPMFFS control groups when faced with adversity. In the participants' view, IPMFFSs also led to enhanced individual and community social well-being, a benefit valued in particular by the women participants. The study tested a new application of the SL conceptual framework as a tool for evaluation. I N T RO D U C T I O NFarmer field schools (FFSs) provide people-centred learning experiences that promote the empowerment of farmers through education. Weekly training sessions are conducted in the villages for a group of 25-30 farmers by expert facilitators during the cropping season. Unlike most previous integrated pest management (IPM) training held in the country, in FFSs the curriculum is developed in collaboration with farmers to address their most relevant agro-ecological problems with locale-specific solutions. FFSs were first applied on a wide scale in 1989 in Indonesia in order to reduce reliance on pesticides in rice by enhancing farmers' understanding of crop ecology (Kenmore, 1996). In India, FFSs have been organized for a number of crops, and especially with the aim of reducing the massive use of pesticides in cotton production. The training curriculum has engaged researchers, extension agents and farmers in on-site participatory research to compare IPM options with the farmer practices currently in use. IPM management decisions are based on the results of an agro-ecosystem analysis of field observations and measurements carried out by the farmers. The critical

Sixty-five farmers reported on pesticide use and the signs and symptoms of acute pesticide poisoning when using two different plant protection strategies: in 2003 using chemical controls and in 2004 using an approach to Integrated Pest Management (IPM) based on an ecological analysis of the field conditions. Exposure to organophosphates was confirmed as a serious risk factor for occupational poisoning. The adoption of IPM reduced the use of pesticides and halved the incidence of acute pesticide poisoning. Overall, the pesticide use spectrum shifted towards lower WHO Hazard Classes. A reduction of adverse health effects was attained through a reduction in exposure to toxic pesticides and behavioural changes. Given that other strategies to reduce the rate of acute poisoning have proven ineffective, interventions aiming to minimize pesticide poisoning in India and in other developing countries with similar rural conditions should focus on restricting the use of highly toxic compounds and educating farmers on IPM.

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