In this paper we construct a model to estimate local employment growth in Italian local labour markets for the period 1991–2001. The model is constructed in a similar manner to the original models of Glaeser et al. (1992), Henderson et al. (1995) and Combes (2000). Our objective is to identify the extent to which the results estimated by these types of models are themselves sensitive to the model specification. In order to do this we extend the basic models by successively incorporating new explanatory variables into the model framework. In addition, and for the first time, we also estimate these same models at two different levels of sectoral aggregation, for the same spatial structure. Our results indicate that these models are highly sensitive to sectoral aggregation and classification and our results therefore strongly support the use of highly disaggregated data.

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Background The assessment of policies for sustainable urban mobility features two basic characteristics: incommensurability and strong uncertainty. This is why multiple dimensions of evaluation and a structured room for collective deliberation and learning should be considered. Methods A participative procedure is used to select a core set of performance indicators of policies for sustainable urban mobility. Citizen participation and stakeholder involvement are obtained through a national sample survey and a deliberative multi-criteria analysis, respectively. This procedure is applied to the Italian case. Results Citizens are more oriented towards reducing private transport costs, air pollution and traffic accidents; stakeholders are more in favour of improving car-free accessibility and reducing the consumption of land and public space generated by urban mobility. The resulting core sets of indicators are highly sensitive to the threshold chosen for the selection. Using a lower cut-off threshold, four performance indicators are shared between the two sets: 'CO2 from transport', 'Quantity and quality of public transport', 'PMx, COVNM, NOx, CO from transport', 'Death and injuries from traffic accident'; using a higher cut-off threshold the two sets feature no intersection. Concluding remarks Further testing at a local scale is needed in order to explicitly consider context-specific objectives, indicators and data; stronger interactions among experts, citizens and stakeholders are needed in order to avoid the generation of equivocal results.

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