Vehicle ownership has increased tremendously in Nigeria for the past decades. This study determined factors that influence vehicle ownership intending to develop a more appropriate basis for forecasting vehicle ownership in the country. Multiple linear regression technique was used to identify the factors that influence vehicle ownership using national data from secondary sources. The results showed that four socioeconomic factors, namely, gross domestic product, per capita income, fuel price, and literacy level, as well as one physical factor, namely, stock of public transport vehicles, have significant effects on vehicle ownership at .01 significance level. Vehicle ownership was 35.3 million in 2018. It will increase to 48.7, 66.2, and 76.1 million in 2030, 2040, and 2050, respectively. Consequently, the formulation of appropriate policy that will be useful for monitoring key parameters is germane for predicting vehicle ownership in the country.
The fact that Nigeria has one of the highest growth rates in the world cannot be overemphasized. Using the census figure of 140 million according to the national population census of 2006, over 70% of Nigeria is in the rural areas. A resultant of this growth has led to rapid urbanization and an enormous increase in the population leaving rural areas and now living in urban centers. Demographic, environmental and economic issues become primary areas of concern with the rapid growth of Nigerian urban centers and its attendant effect on rural areas. Policy makers and urban planners are faced with the worries these factors are placing on existing infrastructure and services. While various environmental and socio-economic factors are easily associated with the rapid rural-urban migration trends in Nigeria, it is of utmost importance to identify their impact/implications and developing strategies to combat their effects. This paper therefore ague for rural development as a panacea for rural-urban migration in Nigeria.
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