We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consist of the observations of the difference between the derivative of the GP and the vector field evaluated at the GP-which are all identically zero at the solution of the ODE. When the GP has a state-space representation, the problem can be reduced to a nonlinear Bayesian filtering problem and all widely-used approximations to the Bayesian filtering and smoothing problems become applicable. Furthermore, all previous GP-based ODE solvers that are formulated in terms of generating synthetic measurements of the gradient field come out as specific approximations. Based on the non-linear Bayesian filtering problem posed in this paper, we develop novel Gaussian solvers for which we establish favourable stability properties. Additionally, non-Gaussian approximations to the filtering problem are derived by the particle filter approach. The resulting solvers are compared with other probabilistic solvers in illustrative experiments.

Iterative filtering and smoothing in non-linear and non-gaussian systems using conditional moments," IEEE Signal Processing Letters, vol. PP, no. 99, pp. 1-1, 2018 DOI:10.1109/LSP.2018.2794767 Copyright:Copyright 2018 IEEE. Personal use of this material is permitted. Permission from IEEE must be obtained for all other uses, in any current or future media, including reprinting/republishing this material for advertising or promotional purposes, creating new collective works, for resale or redistribution to servers or lists, or reuse of any copyrighted component of this work in other works. Abstract-This letter presents the development of novel iterated filters and smoothers that only require specification of the conditional moments of the dynamic and measurement models. This leads to generalisations of the iterated extended Kalman filter, the iterated extended Kalman smoother, the iterated posterior linearisation filter, and the iterated posterior linearisation smoother. The connections to the previous algorithms are clarified and a convergence analysis is provided. Furthermore, the merits of the proposed algorithms are demonstrated in simulations of the stochastic Ricker map where they are shown to have similar or superior performance to competing algorithms.

Despite the ubiquity of the Gaussian process regression model, few theoretical results are available that account for the fact that parameters of the covariance kernel typically need to be estimated from the data set. This article provides one of the first theoretical analyses in the context of Gaussian process regression with a noiseless data set. Specifically, we consider the scenario where the scale parameter of a Sobolev kernel (such as a Mat\' ern kernel) is estimated by maximum likelihood. We show that the maximum likelihood estimation of the scale parameter alone provides significant adaptation against misspecification of the Gaussian process model in the sense that the model can become``slowly"" overconfident at worst, regardless of the difference between the smoothness of the data-generating function and that expected by the model. The analysis is based on a combination of techniques from nonparametric regression and scattered data interpolation. Empirical results are provided in support of the theoretical findings.

In this paper, we propose a new framework for solving state estimation problems with an additional sparsitypromoting L1-regularizer term. We first formulate such problems as minimization of the sum of linear or nonlinear quadratic error terms and an extra regularizer, and then present novel algorithms which solve the linear and nonlinear cases. The methods are based on a combination of the iterated extended Kalman smoother and variable splitting techniques such as alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We present a general algorithmic framework for variable splitting methods, where the iterative steps involving minimization of the nonlinear quadratic terms can be computed efficiently by iterated smoothing. Due to the use of state estimation algorithms, the proposed framework has a low per-iteration time complexity, which makes it suitable for solving a large-scale or high-dimensional state estimation problem. We also provide convergence results for the proposed algorithms. The experiments show the promising performance and speed-ups provided by the methods.

There is a growing interest in probabilistic numerical solutions to ordinary differential equations. In this paper, the maximum a posteriori estimate is studied under the class of $$\nu $$ ν times differentiable linear time-invariant Gauss–Markov priors, which can be computed with an iterated extended Kalman smoother. The maximum a posteriori estimate corresponds to an optimal interpolant in the reproducing kernel Hilbert space associated with the prior, which in the present case is equivalent to a Sobolev space of smoothness $$\nu +1$$ ν + 1 . Subject to mild conditions on the vector field, convergence rates of the maximum a posteriori estimate are then obtained via methods from nonlinear analysis and scattered data approximation. These results closely resemble classical convergence results in the sense that a $$\nu $$ ν times differentiable prior process obtains a global order of $$\nu $$ ν , which is demonstrated in numerical examples.

Abstract-The aim of this article is to design a moment transformation for Student-t distributed random variables, which is able to account for the error in the numerically computed mean. We employ Student-t process quadrature, an instance of Bayesian quadrature, which allows us to treat the integral itself as a random variable whose variance provides information about the incurred integration error. Advantage of the Student-t process quadrature over the traditional Gaussian process quadrature, is that the integral variance depends also on the function values, allowing for a more robust modelling of the integration error. The moment transform is applied in nonlinear sigma-point filtering and evaluated on two numerical examples, where it is shown to outperform the state-of-the-art moment transforms.

Owing to their millisecond-scale temporal resolution, magnetoencephalography (MEG) and electroencephalography (EEG) are well-suited tools to study dynamic functional connectivity between regions in the human brain. However, current techniques to estimate functional connectivity from MEG/EEG are based on a two-step approach; first, the MEG/EEG inverse problem is solved to estimate the source activity, and second, connectivity is estimated between the sources. In this work, we propose a method for simultaneous estimation of source activities and their dynamic functional connectivity using a Kalman filter. Based on simulations, our approach can reliably estimate source activities and resolve their time-varying interactions even at low SNR (<1). When applied on empirical MEG responses to simple visual stimuli, our approach could capture the dynamic patterns of the underlying functional connectivity changes between the lower (pericalcarine) and higher (fusiform and parahippocampal) visual areas. In conclusion, we demonstrate that our approach is capable of tracking changes in functional connectivity at the millisecond resolution of MEG/EEG and thus making it suitable for real-time tracking of functional connectivity, which none of the current techniques are capable of.

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