The dense circuit structure of mammalian cerebral cortex is still unknown. With developments in three-dimensional electron microscopy, the imaging of sizable volumes of neuropil has become possible, but dense reconstruction of connectomes is the limiting step. We reconstructed a volume of ~500,000 cubic micrometers from layer 4 of mouse barrel cortex, ~300 times larger than previous dense reconstructions from the mammalian cerebral cortex. The connectomic data allowed the extraction of inhibitory and excitatory neuron subtypes that were not predictable from geometric information. We quantified connectomic imprints consistent with Hebbian synaptic weight adaptation, which yielded upper bounds for the fraction of the circuit consistent with saturated long-term potentiation. These data establish an approach for the locally dense connectomic phenotyping of neuronal circuitry in the mammalian cortex.

We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation with limited time or hardware, are important for much contemporary science and industry. Within applications such as climate science and astrophysics, the need to make decisions on the basis of computations with large and complex data have led to a renewed focus on the management of numerical uncertainty. We describe how several seminal classic numerical methods can be interpreted naturally as probabilistic inference. We then show that the probabilistic view suggests new algorithms that can flexibly be adapted to suit application specifics, while delivering improved empirical performance. We provide concrete illustrations of the benefits of probabilistic numeric algorithms on real scientific problems from astrometry and astronomical imaging, while highlighting open problems with these new algorithms. Finally, we describe how probabilistic numerical methods provide a coherent framework for identifying the uncertainty in calculations performed with a combination of numerical algorithms (e.g. both numerical optimizers and differential equation solvers), potentially allowing the diagnosis (and control) of error sources in computations.

Abstract-This paper proposes an automatic controller tuning framework based on linear optimal control combined with Bayesian optimization. With this framework, an initial set of controller gains is automatically improved according to a pre-defined performance objective evaluated from experimental data. The underlying Bayesian optimization algorithm is Entropy Search, which represents the latent objective as a Gaussian process and constructs an explicit belief over the location of the objective minimum. This is used to maximize the information gain from each experimental evaluation. Thus, this framework shall yield improved controllers with fewer evaluations compared to alternative approaches. A sevendegree-of-freedom robot arm balancing an inverted pole is used as the experimental demonstrator. Results of two-and fourdimensional tuning problems highlight the method's potential for automatic controller tuning on robotic platforms.

We study connections between ordinary differential equation (ODE) solvers and probabilistic regression methods in statistics. We provide a new view of probabilistic ODE solvers as active inference agents operating on stochastic differential equation models that estimate the unknown initial value problem (IVP) solution from approximate observations of the solution derivative, as provided by the ODE dynamics. Adding to this picture, we show that several multistep methods of Nordsieck form can be recasted as Kalman filtering on q-times integrated Wiener processes. Doing so provides a family of IVP solvers that return a Gaussian posterior measure, rather than a point estimate. We show that some such methods have low computational overhead, nontrivial convergence order, and that the posterior has a calibrated concentration rate. Additionally, we suggest a step size adaptation algorithm which completes the proposed method to a practically useful implementation, which we experimentally evaluate using a representative set of standard codes in the DETEST benchmark set.

Abstract. This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems Bx = b with positive definite B for x. The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of B, which can be used to estimate errors. Recent probabilistic interpretations of the secant family of quasi-Newton optimization algorithms are extended. Combined with properties of the conjugate gradient algorithm, this leads to uncertainty-calibrated methods with very limited cost overhead over conjugate gradients, a self-contained novel interpretation of the quasi-Newton and conjugate gradient algorithms, and a foundation for new nonlinear optimization methods.