Filtering and smoothing methods are used to produce an accurate estimate of the state of a time-varying system based on multiple observational inputs (data). Interest in these methods has exploded in recent years, with numerous applications emerging in fields such as navigation, aerospace engineering, telecommunications and medicine. This compact, informal introduction for graduate students and advanced undergraduates presents the current state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing methods in a unified Bayesian framework. Readers learn what non-linear Kalman filters and particle filters are, how they are related, and their relative advantages and disadvantages. They also discover how state-of-the-art Bayesian parameter estimation methods can be combined with state-of-the-art filtering and smoothing algorithms. The book's practical and algorithmic approach assumes only modest mathematical prerequisites. Examples include Matlab computations, and the numerous end-of-chapter exercises include computational assignments. Matlab code is available for download at www.cambridge.org/sarkka, promoting hands-on work with the methods.

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This paper proposes a novel scheme for reduced-rank Gaussian process regression. The method is based on an approximate series expansion of the covariance function in terms of an eigenfunction expansion of the Laplace operator in a compact subset of R d . On this approximate eigenbasis the eigenvalues of the covariance function can be expressed as simple functions of the spectral density of the Gaussian process, which allows the GP inference to be solved under a computational cost scaling as O(nm 2 ) (initial) and O(m 3 ) (hyperparameter learning) with m basis functions and n data points. The approach also allows for rigorous error analysis with Hilbert space theory, and we show that the approximation becomes exact when the size of the compact subset and the number of eigenfunctions go to infinity. The expansion generalizes to Hilbert spaces with an inner product which is defined as an integral over a specified input density. The method is compared to previously proposed methods theoretically and through empirical tests with simulated and real data.

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In this paper, we present a formal quantification of uncertainty induced by numerical solutions of ordinary and partial differential equation models. Numerical solutions of differential equations contain inherent uncertainties due to the finite-dimensional approximation of an unknown and implicitly defined function. When statistically analysing models based on differential equations describing physical, or other naturally occurring, phenomena, it can be important to explicitly account for the uncertainty introduced by the numerical method. Doing so enables objective determination of this source of uncertainty, relative to other uncertainties, such as those caused by data contaminated with noise or model error induced by missing physical or inadequate descriptors. As ever larger scale mathematical models are being used in the sciences, often sacrificing complete resolution of the differential equation on the grids used, formally accounting for the uncertainty in the numerical method is becoming increasingly more important. This paper provides the formal means to incorporate this uncer- School of Mathematics, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland tainty in a statistical model and its subsequent analysis. We show that a wide variety of existing solvers can be randomised, inducing a probability measure over the solutions of such differential equations. These measures exhibit contraction to a Dirac measure around the true unknown solution, where the rates of convergence are consistent with the underlying deterministic numerical method. Furthermore, we employ the method of modified equations to demonstrate enhanced rates of convergence to stochastic perturbations of the original deterministic problem. Ordinary differential equations and elliptic partial differential equations are used to illustrate the approach to quantify uncertainty in both the statistical analysis of the forward and inverse problems.

Abstract-In this paper, we revisit batch state estimation through the lens of Gaussian process (GP) regression. We consider continuous-discrete estimation problems wherein a trajectory is viewed as a one-dimensional GP, with time as the independent variable. Our continuous-time prior can be defined by any linear, time-varying stochastic differential equation driven by white noise; this allows the possibility of smoothing our trajectory estimates using a variety of vehicle dynamics models (e.g., 'constant-velocity'). We show that this class of prior results in an inverse kernel matrix (i.e., covariance matrix between all pairs of measurement times) that is exactly sparse (block-tridiagonal) and that this can be exploited to carry out GP regression (and interpolation) very efficiently. Though the prior is continuous, we consider measurements to occur at discrete times. When the measurement model is also linear, this GP approach is equivalent to classical, discrete-time smoothing (at the measurement times). When the measurement model is nonlinear, we iterate over the whole trajectory (as is common in vision and robotics) to maximize accuracy. We test the approach experimentally on a simultaneous trajectory estimation and mapping problem using a mobile robot dataset.