In the field of behavioral finance mood, emotions and other different effecting factors have been investigated regarding stock market return. Weather is one of the most important and vital factor that has been analyzed. In this empirical study the two different stock exchanges (Eastern Asian and South Asian) are compared with respect to the weather variable temperature. The analysis and investigation has been made by utilizing the six years record of both stock exchange (China, Pakistan) indexes (SSE-180, KSE 100). The Autoregressive (AR) Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) technique has been utilized for analysis. It has been found that temperature is the most affecting factor that has negative effect on both stock exchanges. The effect of temperature on both stock exchanges has been compared and found that Eastern Asian Country have more effect as compared South Asian country. The results are given in detail by using Eviews Package.
Changes in the climate and weather conditions, as well as rising earth's average temperature are likely to escalate deterioration of global drought occurrence. Drought is considered an interwoven natural disaster composed by a number of different factors, as for example agricultural, meteorological or hydrological. Hydrological drought estimation with regional accuracy is the most problematic and challenging issue. In order to monitor and characterize drought conditions, using Standardized Drought Indices (SDI) is recently the most frequently used practice. In this research article, we suggest an improved hydrological drought index that incorporates upgraded monthly rainfall estimation records, which play an important role in defining regional drought conditions, with regard to the global temperature rise. Rainfall is highly changeable even at a low distance and therefore should be also considered in precipitation estimation records because temporal rainfall records play a significant role in determining long-term rainfall shortages. Thus, the integration of regional aspect to the amount of rainfall is essential for accurate regional drought assessment. This research article proposes adding auxiliary data such as regional weights in order to make monthly rainfall records more accurate in relation to the dependency characteristics of temperature and rainfall records under regression and product estimation settings. Subsequently, we propose an innovative method of hydrological drought evaluation, a so-called Regionally Improved Weighted Standardized Drought Index (RIWSDI). We evaluated hydrological drought with the usage of RIWSDI at seven various meteorological regions situated in climatologically different areas in Pakistan. We assessed and compared the results using RIWSDI, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on 3 and 12-month interval period on the basis of Pearson correlation. Under both parametric and non-parametric standardization, we discovered that there is a high positive correlation between RIWSDI and current methodology (SPI). To sum up, we proved that the upgraded estimations of rainfall are able to improve systems for monitoring droughts.
This paper presents the impact of mean maximum temperature on Chitral river basin situated at Chitral district and high altitude (>6000 m) peaks of the Hindukush range under changing climate in Pakistan. The analysis of Chitral River as one of the tributary of Kabul River—the second largest river of Pakistan—revealed that change in temperature has a profound influence on the snow/glacial melt in comparison to the mean monthly rainfall. This is because the studied river is faded by the snow and glacial melt and receives a lot of snowfall from winter (DecFeb) to pre-monsoon (April-May). In monsoon period (Jul-Sep), 30% of the time the discharge rate remains above the mean while 60% of the time the discharge is less than the mean in the pre-monsoon (April-May) period. It means that 10% of the time the discharge is in reach of 300% to 900% of the mean flow, showing a rise in water yield and river discharge rate due to increase in mean monthly maximum temperature. Due to this significant increase (p < 0.05), the glaciers start melting faster and disappear in early summer, hence, reducing their residency period to convert into ice. This shows the signals of changing climate transfer into hydrological changes in Pakistan. Our findings are important for agriculture, hydropower and water management sectors for future planning especially in dry season for sustainable food security and for operation of ydrological installations in the country.
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