Relaxing standard hedging assumptions in a downside risk framework The purpose of this study is to analyze how the introduction of a downside risk measure and less restrictive assumptions can change the optimal hedge ratio in the standard hedging problem. Based on a dataset of futures and cash prices for soybeans in the U.S., the empirical findings indicate that optimal hedge ratios change dramatically when a one-sided risk measure is adopted and standard assumptions are relaxed. Further, the results suggest that in a downside risk framework with realistic hedging assumptions there is little or no incentive for farmers to hedge.
The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of the growth of the Brazilian winter corn crop on the dynamics between domestic Brazilian prices and international prices as well as spot and futures prices in Brazil. Econometric time-series methods tests were applied using Brazilian spot and futures prices and U.S. futures prices. The statistical analysis found evidence that a long-run relationship between Brazilian and U.S. prices had developed, and the Brazilian futures market developed a more dominant role in the relationship between spot and futures prices domestically. These findings were particularly noticeable after 2002, when expanding corn production in Brazil was leading to greater participation in the international market (exports) and increasing trading in the Brazilian futures market.
2014),"The capital structure of Chinese listed firms: is manufacturing industry special?", Managerial Finance, Vol. 40 Iss 5 pp. 469-486 http://dx.(2014),"Investment opportunity set, board independence, and firm performance: The impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act", Managerial Finance, Vol. 40 Iss 5 pp. 454-468 http://dx.Access to this document was granted through an Emerald subscription provided by emerald-srm:368933 []
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AbstractPurpose -The purpose of this paper is to explore the existence of disposition effect among Canadian wheat farmers when marketing their grain. This study examines the question of whether farmers wait too long to price their grain or whether they price it too soon. Design/methodology/approach -The disposition effect is a common behavior documented in financial markets, and reflects the notion that investors tend to hold losing positions too long and close winning positions too fast. This idea can also be applied to grain marketing, exploring whether farmers sell their grain more readily when prices are "high" and wait longer when prices are "low." Based on the approach by Odean (1998), marketing strategies of 15,564 farmers between 2003/2004 and 2008/2009 are examined.Findings -Results support the existence of disposition effect in marketing decisions. Farmers seem to be eager to sell when prices offered by contracts are above their reference price and wait longer to sell when prices offered by contracts are below their reference price. There is no clear evidence that farmers might consistently benefit from this behavior. On the other hand, it is not clear whether this behavior can be costly to farmers. Originality/value -Exploring the existence of disposition effect is relevant because this behavior can affect performance. If grain is sold too early, farmers can miss opportunities to sell at higher prices later. If grain is held too long, prices can go down and farmers will end up selling at lower prices. This study uses unique data to perform the first analysis of the disposition effect in the agricultural industry, and its findings can provide new insights and move us toward a more complete understanding of decision making in this industry.
Abstract:This study explores different procedures to estimate price risk in commodity markets. Focusing on Brazilian agricultural markets, the paper proposes to assess both dispersion and downside risk measures using five different approaches (volatility, coefficient of variation, lower partial moments, value at risk and conditional value at risk). Results suggest that some commodities have large price variability but small downside risk, while other commodities show small price variability and large downside risk. Thus, there is no single answer to the question of which commodity exhibits more price risk, but rather distinct answers depending on how risk is perceived by different individuals. These findings are relevant for agents in the agricultural industry as they affect marketing and risk management decisions and for policy makers involved in support programs to agriculture.
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