We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.

We developed a computational tool to assess the risks of novel coronavirus outbreaks outside of China. We estimate the dependence of the risk of a major outbreak in a country from imported cases on key parameters such as: (i) the evolution of the cumulative number of cases in mainland China outside the closed areas; (ii) the connectivity of the destination country with China, including baseline travel frequencies, the effect of travel restrictions, and the efficacy of entry screening at destination; and (iii) the efficacy of control measures in the destination country (expressed by the local reproduction number R loc ). We found that in countries with low connectivity to China but with relatively high R loc , the most beneficial control measure to reduce the risk of outbreaks is a further reduction in their importation number either by entry screening or travel restrictions. Countries with high connectivity but low R loc benefit the most from policies that further reduce R loc . Countries in the middle should consider a combination of such policies. Risk assessments were illustrated for selected groups of countries from America, Asia, and Europe. We investigated how their risks depend on those parameters, and how the risk is increasing in time as the number of cases in China is growing.

Consider the difference equation x k+1 = x k e α−x n−d where α is a positive parameter and d is a nonnegative integer. The case d = 0 was introduced by W.E. Ricker in 1954. For the delayed version d ≥ 1 of the equation S. Levin and R. May conjectured in 1976 that local stability of the nontrivial equilibrium implies its global stability. Based on rigorous, computer aided calculations and analytical tools, we prove the conjecture for d = 1.

We present an algebraic method for treating molecular vibrations in the Morse potential perturbed by an external laser field. By the help of a complete and normalizable basis we transform the Schrödinger equation into a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. We apply our method to calculate the dissociation probability of the NO molecule excited by chirped laser pulses. The dependence of the molecular dipole-moment on the interatomic separation is determined by a quantum-chemical method, and the corresponding transition dipole moments are given by approximate analytic expressions. These turn out to be very small between neighboring stationary states around the vibrational quantum number m = 42, therefore we propose to use additional pulses in order to skip this trapping state, and to obtain a reasonable dissociation probability.

Three models, linked in series, can be used to analyze combined pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data arising from non--steady-state experiments. A PK model relates dose to plasma drug concentration (Cp); a link model relates Cp to drug concentration at the effect site (Ce); and a PD model relates Ce to drug effect (E). All three submodels can be stated parametrically. Recently the use of a nonparametric PD submodel has been proposed (CLIN PHARMACOL THER 1984;35:733-41). In this article we use an extended nonparametric approach that represents both the PK and PD models nonparametrically, but retains a parametric link model. Cp data from several PK models and E data from several PD models were simulated. After the addition of noise to both the Cp and E data, they were analyzed by both the parametric and extended nonparametric methods. The methods were compared by how well they estimated the PD model. To assess robustness, the effect of misspecification of the PK submodel on the goodness of estimation of both methods was also compared. In the absence of model misspecification, the parametric method usually estimates the PD model better than the nonparametric method. However, this difference in the performances diminishes and even reverses when the PK model is misspecified. Because one can rarely be certain that model misspecification is absent, the nonparametric approach may offer a distinct advantage for routine analysis of PK/PD data.

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a considerable reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.

No abstract

COVID-19 epidemic has been suppressed in Hungary due to timely non-pharmaceutical interventions, prompting a huge reduction in the number of contacts and transmission of the virus. This strategy was effective in preventing epidemic growth and reducing the incidence of COVID-19 to low levels. In this report, we present the first epidemiological and statistical analysis of the early phase of the COVID-19 outbreak in Hungary. Then, we establish an age-structured compartmental model to explore alternative post-lockdown scenarios. We incorporate various factors, such as age-specific measures, seasonal effects, and spatial heterogeneity to project the possible peak size and disease burden of a COVID-19 epidemic wave after the current measures are relaxed.